-- Published: Thursday, 27 March 2014 | Print | Disqus
Yesterday the reserve bank of India (RBI) was buying to prevent the Indian rupee from gaining further. This is first time in the past nine months that RBI was intervening to prevent the rupee from gaining. To me this is an indication that India will allow partial gold imports soon. The 80:20 rule will be changed. We expect the RBI to allow gold imports in its policy meeting next week.
At some time physical demand for gold and silver will catch up and prevent a big slide from here. For the month of April spot gold needs to trade over $1230 to target $1403 and above. There is a peaceful escalation of tension between the USA and Russia over Crimea. This is one of the key reasons why gold prices fell. (apart from better than expected US economic numbers). Next week's US March farm payrolls, if it disappoints, will trigger the next rally in gold. We are hearing of gold being manipulated all over the net. The gold price has been manipulated and will continue to be manipulated by the USA and its NATO allies so that their currencies remain the key medium of exchange in global trade and the phrase "trade sanctions" remains the most fearful phrase in the mind of global leaders.
Last week Iraq, a colony of the USA was buying gold and increasing its gold reserves. I am not sure whether central bankers are buyers at current prices. But in the long term they will be increasing gold reserves. Nations will increase bilateral trade when end settlement will be made in either of the currencies or in kind. The USA will not be able to stop bilateral trade between nations without the use of the US dollar.
India-Russia trade is the best example of bilateral trade without the use of US dollars. A US induced isolation of Russia gives India yet another chance of support to its only friend and also reduces dependency on Middle East crude oil. It is time for the so called "sarkari babus" sitting in the "North Bloc" and "South Bloc" in New Delhi to be nationalistic and take the Indo-Russian friendship to a new levels. Defense indigenization can be taken to a new level with the help of Russia. Russia could give India certain technology which previously was not available. But first and foremost India should support Russia in whichever way it can. Indian policy makers have to remember that Russia is the only nation which since Independence has never imposed any sanctions against India under any circumstance.
In the next three months silver needs to trade over $1800 to target $2500. With a very big fall in silver the risk to return ratio moves in favor of the buyer. (Those who want to invest in silver at current prices better wait for some more days). A big crash in silver will come only below $1800 in the next three months.
COMEX DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS |
COMMODITY | BREAK POINTS | EXPECTED WIDER TRADING RANGE | TRADING STRATEGY |
METALS |
GOLD -APRIL 14 | 1285.20 | 1299.00 | 1267-1299-1326 | Sell only if gold trades below $1299 with a stop loss |
SILVER -- MAY 14 | 1963.00 | 2009.00 | 1956-2009-2036 | Buy around $1946 stop loss $1920 for $2008-$2036 -- jobbers watch $1984 |
COPPER --- MAY 14 | 294.30 | 301.50 | 290.80-310.70 | Buy on dips with a stop loss below $286 |
ENERGIES |
CRUDE OIL | 98.60 | 101.90 | 97.70-100.68-102.20 | Watch $99.60 and trade accordingly |
All prices above are In US dollars |
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX GOLD APRIL -- prices in Indian rupee below
Initial support is at 28360 and gold needs to trade over 28360 to target 28600-28960. There will be another wave of selling only below 28360 to 28075 and 27880. There will be buyers if and only if gold trades over 28600.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Manan Somani
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
UK session starts around 1:30 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories
US session starts at 6pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
COMEX GOLD – $15-$17
COMEX SILVER: $25-$30
COMEX COPPER: $3
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60
SPOT SILVER: $0.25
SPOT GOLD: $15-$17
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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-- Published: Thursday, 27 March 2014 | E-Mail | Print | Source: GoldSeek.com
