It is a new quarter. The trading strategies which worked in the previous quarter may not work this quarter. This is the uniqueness of 2014. Same trading strategies will not work every quarter. Gold and silver bulls will be dependent on three key factors this quarter: (a) Escalation of Ukrainian risk (b) US interest rate outlook for the rest of the year (c) Global physical gold demand and more so when India opens up gold imports. In this quarter gold needs to trade over $1230 to be in a long term bullish zone. In this quarter silver has to break $2300 or fall below $1850 for direction. The Hindu summer marriage season which begins in Indian this month has one the largest number of auspicious days for marriage this summer (April to July period). This implies higher demand for jewelry. The trend in India is shifting more and more in favor of diamond jewelry during marriages with a reduction in sales of pure gold jewelry.
US state elections will be held in November this year which reconfigures the US senate. From July the global focus will shift to the USA and punters will be betting on whether Barak Obamaand his party are able to get maximum majorityin US senate. Politics is all about a strong and charismatic leadership. I do not see any strong leader with the Republicans who can prevent the democrats from getting a thumping majority in November state elections.
Tomorrow's US private ADP numbers will be the key.
Oversold conditions exist in gold and silver.
COMEX SILVER MAY 2014 – current price $1971.00
Bullish over $1984.00 with $2021 and $2052 as price target
Bearish below $1960.0 with $1939-$1915 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $1960-$1984
Failure to break $2040 by Monday, 7th April 2014 will result in a fall to $1880 and $1780
Better to remain on the sidelines.
MCX SILVER MAY - prices in Indian rupees
Key support is at 42600 and silver needs to trade over 42600 to prevent a sell off to 42100 and 40600. Overall trend is bearish as long as silver trades below 43300.
Disclaimer:Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Manan Somani
Disclosure:Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
Trade without emotions
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
UK session starts around 1:30 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories
US session starts at 6pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
COMEX GOLD – $15-$17
COMEX SILVER: $25-$30
COMEX COPPER: $3
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60
SPOT SILVER: $0.25
SPOT GOLD: $15-$17
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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