-- Published: Monday, 21 April 2014 | Print | Disqus
- Gold and silver looking mildly bearish at the moment
There is already speculation that the peace treaty on Ukraine is in limbo. US economic data releases will not support gold and silver bulls till the Federal reserve meeting on 30th April. Escalation/descalation of tensions in Ukraine will be the key. Gold needs to trade over $1270 on daily closing basis in the next two weeks to prevent another sell off. Comex silver May futures are expiring in the next ten days. Short covering before future expiry should lend support to silver. Silver needs to trade over $18.80 in the next ten days to target $21.50.
President Barack Obama offered a campaign argument that he’s counting on to turn his health-care law from a liability into a winner for the November elections. The campaign for the November senate elections as started with Good Friday vacations. More and more voter friendly measures and comments will be there in the headlines over the coming months. Whether these translate into a stronger US dollar or not remains to be seen.
Payrolls climbed in 34 U.S. states in March and unemployment rates fell in 21, showing the job market was making progress across much of the world’s largest economy. US payrolls will continue to rise till June. Higher consumer spending in Easter vacations will translate into more jobs all round and will spruce up the US economy. The positive effects of stronger Easter demand will be felt in two months after Easter which is around end June. Thereafter after US jobs growth and US consumer spending should stabilize or fall. Crude oil prices are trading over $100. Higher energy prices is a bane to the global economy and could reduce US consumer spending in the consumer months.
The logic to higher crude oil prices seems to be political instead of fundamentals or anything. Crude oil prices have been jerked over $100 (a) To ensure that Arab world supports USA and its NATO allies against Russia and/or any other nations they impose trade sanctions. (b) Higher crude oil prices is necessary to prevent nations from growing. Lower crude oil prices will result in higher growth and more development for these nations. If nations have strong growth then small nations will not need US/NATO aid. Reduced aid off take implies reduced global power of USA/NATO. Receiving aid from USA/NATO is indirect form of bowing before the boss.
The USA and its allies speak of human right violation in Syria, Ukraine and even in my nations Kashmir. There is large scale human right violation in all the allies of USA in the Middle East and North Africa region. Still they keep quiet.
There is not much US economic data release today. European markets are closed. It will be a technical trade with the US dollar as the key.
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COMEX TECHNICAL VIEW
COMEX GOLD JUNE 2014 – current price $1286.00
Bullish over $1294.00 with $1307 and $1319.00 price target
Bearish below $1286.00 with $1277.00 and $1259.00 as price target
Neutral Zone between $1286-$1294
- Gold can fall to $1277 and $1262 as long as it trades below $1287
- A daily close below $1287 will be technically bearish for gold
- There will be another wave of selling if gold trades below $1287 either in UK session or US session.
MCX GOLD JUNE - prices in Indian rupees below
Key weekly support is at 28456 and there will be another wave of selling to 28112 if gold trades below 28456 any day.
Two week view: Failure to break 29191 will result in a fall to 27820 and 27134
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Manan Somani
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
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UK session starts around 1:30 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories
US session starts at 6pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
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APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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-- Published: Monday, 21 April 2014 | E-Mail | Print | Source: GoldSeek.com