-- Published: Wednesday, 23 April 2014 | Print | Disqus
There is not much news flow at the moment. Traders are now expecting a Federal reserve taper in June’s meeting and further. There is huge optimism about the US economy. This is the reason why gold and silver have not risen despite increased Ukraine tensions. Gold still needs to trade over $1270 to prevent another wave of selling. Silver has technical congestion between $1880-$1920 and as long as silver trades over this zone, bulls still have hope. People return from Easter vacations and crude oil prices start to drop. We all have been duped by the state.
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Easter is over. Summer has arrived in a big way in the northern hemisphere. Holidays are over and there are no holidays until mid August in India. It’s time to invest wisely, save to pay for higher energy bills and also save for next vacation. When I shifted to Delhi from Calcutta in early 1990, I never needed to switch on my air-conditioner until mid May. Now I need to switch on my AC by mid April. Such is the impact on global warming on my energy bills. The numbers of rainy days in Delhi has reduced by a third in the last twenty years in Delhi. It will be very difficult to reduce energy bills particularly when summer school vacations start from May. For the Indian middle class, the advent of summer season implies meticulous financial planning as energy cost as well as prices of vegetables and other living essentials zoom. The best way to get over this is to follow a weekly budget and also monitor your investment on a weekly basis. On the weekend everyone should take at least two hours to look at the value of our investment and also search the internet for factors which could reduce the return. Self is the best help for a sound financial investment strategy and a rosy future. For India a relatively risky free return over around eighteen percent per anum and over is the need of hour to bear real inflation. (I have never believed in government released inflation numbers as they have a big element of statistical adjustments).
Trade very carefully till Friday. MCX is closed tomorrow due to elections in Mumbai. Physical demand for gold will rise in India in the next month due to huge marriage season. Copper and base metals (other than Nickel) are fundamentally bearish as Chinese manufacturing contracts. The rise could be due to profit taking before future expiry on month end.
TECHNICAL VIEW
COMEX SILVER MAY 2014 – current price $1947.00
Bullish over $1923.00 with $1976 and $2008 as price target
Bearish below $1905.0 with $1888-$1867 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $1905-$1923
- There is a mini double bottom at $1922 which suggests that silver can rise to $1976 and $2020 as long as it trades over $1922
- There will be a technical break down only below $1922
- We prefer a buy on sharp dips strategy as long as silver trades over $1880 till tomorrow. However one needs to trade carefully at the current price of $1940 as quick $30-$40 one way moves can happen anytime.
MCX CRUDE OIL - prices in Indian rupees below
Key support is at 6190 and crude oil needs to trade over 6190 to prevent another round of selling to 6145 and 6076. Resistance is at 6276 and only a consolidated break of 6276 will result in further gains
Three week view: Failure to break 6550 in the next three weeks will result in a fall to 6084 and 5833.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Manan Somani
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
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-- Published: Wednesday, 23 April 2014 | E-Mail | Print | Source: GoldSeek.com
