-- Published: Friday, 9 May 2014 | Print | Disqus
Sundays Ukrainian referendum will be the key and will dictate how things progress in the future. In my view the referendum will not be accepted by NATO if the same supports Russia. NATO and its allies wants to get hold of Ukraine and any Russian bias will not be accepted and the war will continue.
The European central bank chief has talked of new monetary policy at its June meeting. Monetary policy followed by key global central bankers and political decisions which will be taken by the USA, the Eurozone or the UK will be done taking into account the impact it has on US state elections in November. In my view the US dollar is deliberately weakened against the euro and other currencies so that there can be an export led recovery in the USA. I expect very huge US dollar gains between September to November period. Growth differentials between the UK, the Eurozone and the USA suggest that the euro/usd should crash like a pack of cards. A stronger euro/usd implies indirect manipulation by central banks.
The impact of all this will be very volatile gold prices. Gold will consolidate in $1145-$1230-$1339-$1430 range. A big rise in gold prices will come if and when gold prices break $1430 at any time of the year or investors get a nervous breakdown in their stock market investment. Fundamentally I expect Asian gold demand to zoom from mid August onwards (if the same does not happen in June).
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Till next week gold buy stop losses will be triggered only if gold falls below $1264 or gold does not break $1315 whichever comes first. Silver will crash as only if copper prices fall.
There are no major US economic data releases today and Monday.
TECHNICAL VIEW
COMEX SILVER JULY 2014 – current price $1916.00
Bullish over $1905 with $1957 and $1992 as price target
Bearish below $1888 with $1874-$1848 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $1888-$1905
- Silver needs to trade over $1905 to target $1950 and $1970
- Silver will crash only if gold and copper both fall.
- Today there will be sellers only if silver trades below $1905 either in the UK session or the US session
MCX GOLD JUNE -- PRICES IN INDIAN RUPEES BELOW
In the past gold has managed to recover between the 28200-28500 zone. One needs to trade very carefully between the 28200-28500 zone and more so when going short. Today gold needs to trade over 28760 to be in a bullish zone. There will be buyers only if gold trades over 28760.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Manan Somani
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
UK session starts around 1:30 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories
US session starts at 6pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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-- Published: Friday, 9 May 2014 | E-Mail | Print | Source: GoldSeek.com
