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Asian Metals Market Update

By: Manan Somani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Monday, 19 May 2014 | Print  | Disqus 

Gold and silver are in a neutral zone and will see big one way five percent one way moves this week. The longer gold trades over $1260 the chances of a big rise are higher. Fundamentally gold is bearish. However Indian gold demand should rise more so after the victory to NDA let government. Once the process of higher growth starts in India and retail investors make some short term quick profits from Indian stock markets, a part of the proceeds profits will move into gold. The Reserve Bank of India's greatest challenge will be devise innovative financial products so that people shed gold. Indian economy is not out of the woods yet. There is hope of higher growth and employment but as on date the ground reality is very different.

Traders will be looking forward to the FOMC minutes and Ukraine referendum this week. Apart from these two there is nothing much to contend with regarding US and European economic data releases. Chinese home sale is a cause of concern for Chinese growth and reflects that there will be mild growth in China for a few more quarters.

What the election of prime minister elect Shri Narendra Modi means for the people of India (my view)

Local businessman (whether small or large) have not taken a holiday on the weekend. They have started implementing their expansion plans (which were put on hold for the past few years). Such is the optimism among small and medium sized businessman and entrepreneurs. Just remember they use large scale labour intensive techniques.

The common man is very hopeful that he will get job security and that there will be stabilization in prices of survival essentials.

Being a part of financial services industry as well as bullion industry, I am very hopeful that (a) Retail participation in Indian stock markets will zoom and that broking houses will re-employ large number of people (a year back around the same time large broking houses in India will reducing their manpower). (b) Higher availability of gold will result in workers returning back to their areas of specialisation.

The people from armed forces will hope that their get better equipment and better training facilities are available. For the last one year, key defence deals were put on hold. The Indian army and its jawans were more or less untouchables for the previous UPA government. Indian army and its jawans expect that get more respect for guarding the nations.

Large corporate houses and global investors are hoping the hyper red tapism is reduced. Policies and tax framework are simplified and that the numbers of government clearances are reduced drastically to start any large project in India.

Every time I want to invest in a mutual fund, I am asked for a photo and adress proof. I am so sick and tired of this, that I have stopped investing in mutual funds. There are lot of other areas of tiny investment where there is too much paper work involved. I hope that new finance minister comes up with innovative ways to reduce this paper work.

As a nationalist person, India should give a befitting reply to any nation which sponsors terrorism in its soil.


COMEX GOLD JUNE 2014 – current price $1295.30

Bullish over $1289.00 with $1309.00 and $1326.00 price target

Bearish below $1279.00 with $1271.00 and $1264.00 as price target

Neutral Zone between $1279-$1289

  • Gold can rise to $1307 and $1326 as long it trades over $1280-$1290 zone
  • There is a technical congestion between $1275-$1295 zone and as long as gold trades over this zone the chances of a rise to $1330-$1360 are very high.
  • The recent consolidation phase of $1270-$1335 range will be broken in the next two weeks and a new range will be formed.

MCX SILVER JULY - prices in Indian rupees below

Weekly view: Key support is at 39910 and silver needs to trade over 39910 this week to target 41702-42557. There will be a long term technical break down only below 39910

Intraday view: Silver needs to trade over 41075 to target 41702-42000.  There will be sellers on rise as long as silver trades over 41075.

COMEX COPPER JULY 2014 – current price $317.00

Bullish over $313.00 with $323.00 -$328.0 as price target

Bearish below $309.00 with $307.00 and $303.00 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $309.00-$313.00

  • Copper looks headed for $323 and $331 in short term as long as it trades over $310
  • There will be sellers only below $310

NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)  - current price $102.18

Bullish over $101.20 with $102.80 and $105.10 as price target

Bearish below $100.60 with $99.90 and $99.10 as price target

  • A consolidated break of $102.20 will result in $104 and $105.50
  • There will be sellers only below $101.20
  • Crude oil is looking bullish at the moment. We will prefer to wait for some more time before going short.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees  have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Manan Somani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

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