-- Published: Tuesday, 20 May 2014 | Print | Disqus
Failure of gold to break past $1326 in the next three weeks will result in a fall to $1230 and $1190 first and thereafter a rise to $1425. However silver needs to fall below $1860 for another wave of selling. Physical demand for silver will zoom if silver prices near $1800. China will triple its solar power generation capacity by 2017. In India if prime minister elect Mr. Narendra Modi follows the Gujarat model of renewable energy then India will also follow China. Japan and the UK are also increasing their solar power generation. Solar power uses silver and lead as the key components. The long term fundamentals of silver and lead are very strong. Short term twenty percent one way swings are a part and parcel of a long term rally. If you are invested in physical silver, then be prepared to hold on to it for a period of three years. Once Barack Obama leaves his office in the next thirty months, I expect another big bull run in gold and silver. The only risk to this view is if John Kerry becomes the next US president after Barack Obama.
In India lots of people are long in MCX silver futures. The general perception is that Indian silver prices will fall to Rs.28000-Rs.30000 per kilogram in the coming months. It will depend on the performance of the Indian rupee versus the US dollar. Big gains in the rupee will result in a fall in silver prices in India. I will prefer to invest in physical silver for a period of five years if Indian physical silver prices fall to Rs.36000 and below. I still expect Indian physical silver prices to rise to Rs.90,000-Rs.1,25,000 in the next six years. As far as an investment portfolio is concerned, five percent should be silver, ten percent in gold, twenty percent in real estate and the rest in long term selected equities. This is my ideal portfolio for Indians after the stable government has been formed.
COMEX TECHNICAL VIEW
COMEX GOLD JUNE 2014 – current price $1292.40
Bullish over $1289.00 with $1309.00 and $1326.00 price target
Bearish below $1279.00 with $1271.00 and $1264.00 as price target
Neutral Zone between $1279-$1289
- Gold can fall to $1277 in case it does not break $1311 today
- The recent consolidation phase of $1270-$1335 range will be broken in the next two weeks and a new range will be formed.
COMEX SILVER JULY 2014 – current price $1930.00
Bullish over $1947 with $1980 and $2032 as price target
Bearish below $1930 with $1909-$1870 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $1930-$1947
- Silver looks mildly bearish and can fall to $1910 and $1880 as long as it trades below $1947
- Silver will crash only if gold and copper both fall.
- There will be sellers if silver trades below $1930 in the UK session
COMEX COPPER JULY 2014 – current price $316.25
Bullish over $313.00 with $323.00 -$328.0 as price target
Bearish below $309.00 with $307.00 and $303.00 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $309.00-$313.00
- Copper looks headed for $323 and $331 in the short term as long as it trades over $310
- There will be sellers only below $315
NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT) - current price $102.57
Bullish over $101.20 with $102.80 and $105.10 as price target
Bearish below $100.60 with $99.90 and $99.10 as price target
- Crude oil needs to break $106 in the next three weeks. In case crude oil does not break $106 in the next three weeks then it will fall to $98 and $95
- Crude oil is looking bullish at the moment. We will prefer to wait for some more time before going short.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Manan Somani
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
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UK session starts around 1:30 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories
US session starts at 6pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
COMEX GOLD – $15-$17
COMEX SILVER: $25-$30
COMEX COPPER: $3
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60
SPOT SILVER: $0.25
SPOT GOLD: $15-$17
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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-- Published: Tuesday, 20 May 2014 | E-Mail | Print | Source: GoldSeek.com