-- Published: Thursday, 29 May 2014 | Print | Disqus
I am of the view that gold will see another parabolic run once the current US president Barack Obama leaves his office in around thirty months from now. In his first term gold prices zoomed and now it is crashing in Obamas second term. Obama belongs to Chicago which is the hub for global commodity price manipulation. Once Obama leaves this office the circle of rise and fall on gold prices will be complete and thereafter the unthinkable mother of all bull runs for gold. Those who are invested in gold needs to wait for another three years. If you do have the patience of three years, then you need to look out for other options. Personally I would suggest to average out gold investment. Indian will gobble gold if gold prices fall to Rs.22,000 per ten grams anytime in the next three years. (current price is around Rs.27800 per ten grams)
A daily close below $1264 tomorrow will be bearish for gold for the month of June. A daily close below $18.90 tomorrow will be bearish for silver for the month of June. Traders will start taking positions for the month of June after the release of US GDP numbers today. US May employment numbers, FOMC meet, European central bank meeting are the key things to watch out in June. From US Independence day in July, the focus will shift to US senate elections in November. Policy decisions will done to attract more voters. We expect energy prices to remain subdued between July to November, unless there is another Katrina in the Gulf of Mexico.
Falling gold prices in India has resulted buyers postponing their gold demand. Gold demand in India is there but it is still below street expectations. Jewelers and analysts like me are hoping for a custom duty cut by the government in the next two months. Reserve Bank of India policy meet next week could give an insight on stance on opening of gold imports. Markets do not foresee an interest rate cut next week.
Geopolitical risk could be the key for the remaining part of the year. Middle East and North Africa has exposed ills done by NATO to the people of these nations. There will be more and more Boko Horoms. This week there was reports that a pregnant women was stoned to death in Pakistan. US did not utter a word. Is this not gross human right violation. The world is getting more and more exposed to double standards followed by US over human right abuses.
Day Traders need to remain on the sidelines.
COMEX TECHNICAL VIEW
COMEX GOLD JUNE 2014 – current price $1257.10
Bullish over $1269.00 with $1286.00 and $1299.00 price target
Bearish below $1258.00 with $1247.00 and $1224.00 as price target
Neutral Zone between $1258 and $1269
- Key intraday support is at $1253 and there will be another wave of selling only below $1253
- Key support till Friday is at $1240.
COMEX SILVER JULY 2014 – current price $1902500
Bullish over $1904 with $1937 and $1962 as price target
Bearish below $1892 with $1878-$1854 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $1892-$1904
- Silver needs to trade over $1890 to target $1927 and $1947
- Trade very carefully between $1890-$1910 zone.
- There will be sellers only if silver trades below $1890 either in UK session or US session
COMEX COPPER JULY 2014 – current price $316.15
Bullish over $313.00 with $323.00 -$328.0 as price target
Bearish below $309.00 with $307.00 and $303.00 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $309.00-$313.00
- Repeated failures to break past $323 is an indication of a correction to $311 and $307
NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT) - current price $102.96
Bullish over $102.30 with $104.80 and $107.20 as price target
Bearish below $101.60 with $100.80 and $99.90 as price target
- Crude oil can fall to $98.60 and $92.20 in case it does not break $106.30 in the next three weeks
- There will be sellers only below $102.80 today.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
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UK session starts around 1:30 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories
US session starts at 6pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
COMEX GOLD – $15-$17
COMEX SILVER: $25-$30
COMEX COPPER: $3
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60
SPOT SILVER: $0.25
SPOT GOLD: $15-$17
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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-- Published: Thursday, 29 May 2014 | E-Mail | Print | Source: GoldSeek.com