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Gold and silver view till the Federal Reserve meeting on 18th June



By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Friday, 6 June 2014 | Print  | Disqus 

US May nonfarm payrolls are over. Traders will start to take positions for the June FOMC meeting on the 18th.  Economic data releases from the USA between now and the 18th will have an impact on gold and silver and the US dollar if and only if they beat street expectations by a wide margin. US data releases beating street expectations by a wide margin implies quicker interest rate hikes.

GOLD: Gold needs to fall below $1230 or break $1278 for another set of big moves. Short term buyers will be using a stop loss below $1230. Long term investors will use a stop loss below $1140 (in case there is a big move). My personal view is go short in gold (till 18th June) only if gold trades below $1230.

SILVER: As long as the 2013 low of $1818 holds, downside risk will be limited. Key long term support is at $1770. Silver needs to trade over $1770 not just till 18th June but for the rest of the year, to attract long term investment interest. My view and investors view are in conflict as far as silver is concerned. Investors want silver to trade over $1900 for the rest of the year so that they remain invested in silver. In the long term key technical support and resistances have a tendency to overshoot/undershoot between ten percent and twenty percent is something which investors forget. For the rest of the year silver needs to break $2350, else it could trade in a $1565-$1770-$1970-$2035-$2350 range (key prices to watch for the rest of the year).

Once the Federal Reserve meet is over, the global focus will shift to US senate elections in November. US politicians will start their campaign for November elections from the US Independence day. The Federal Reserve will not be Independent till November and will do all it takes to ensure that US presidents party gets a thumping majority in Senate.  To me this implies that a neutral tone to hawkish tone will be there in all Federal Reserve meetings till October as far as US interest rates are concerned. Geopolitical risk will be closely watched for the rest of the year.

Indian gold demand will rise for the year. There are concerns that El Niño conditions will result in lower monsoon rains. Lower monsoon rains (if any) will impact rural gold demand. However in case South India receives normal rainfall then Indian rural gold demand will not fall by much. In India there is now a North-South divide as rural gold demand is concerned. In North India even the rural population are opting for diamonds for jewelry at a very rapid pace while pure gold jewelry demand still continues in south India. This year I expect a very sharp rise in jewelry demand from urban India and more so in the last quarter of the year.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Website www.insigniaconsultants.in. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT

PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS

PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.

PLEASE USE A STOP LOSS OF MINIMUM RS.5000-RS.8000 PER LOT ON ALL INTRA DAY TRADES

ALL PRICES ARE IN US DOLLARS INDIAN RUPEE UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED

Indian Standard Time (IST): +5:30 GMT


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 -- Published: Friday, 6 June 2014 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

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