Key long term resistances are at $1335-$1426 and $1532.
OUR TECHNICAL VIEW
There is a clash between long term support and short term bearish divergence in gold. The key long term support is at $1235 while short term resistance is at $1278
Gold has to break and trade over $1278 for another short term wave of rise to $1315 and $1335
On the contrary a consolidated fall below $1230 will trigger buy stop losses and a test of 31st December 2013 low of $1180
Physical demand of gold will be very high if and when gold nears $1200. It will not be easy for gold to fall below $1170-$1200 zone for the rest of the month.
OUR FUNDAMENTAL VIEW
If the FOMC meet directly says that interest rates will not be raised as quickly as the markets currently anticipates then gold prices will zoom to the $1392-$1430 zone
Geopolitical risk in Iraq, Pakistan, Ukraine and North Africa will be the key and can have a positive impact on gold if they escalate beyond reasonable proportions.
Gold demand will rise in Asia as gold prices near $1220 and below. However Asian gold demand will vanish if gold prices fall below $1180
Nymex Crude oil prices are over $100 for the past few weeks. Incase crude oil prices zoom to $112 and trades over $112, then gold prices will rise to $1400+.
Direction of gold prices will be the sum of = Crude oil prices+US Interest rates+Geopolitical risk+Asian demand for gold
Investor sentiment is hyper bearish for gold. There are huge short position in gold. Trading Volumes are relatively low at the moment due to cyclical factors.
Disclaimer:Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
Disclosure:Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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