-- Published: Tuesday, 17 June 2014 | Print | Disqus
The rise in US manufacturing activity resulted in profit taking in gold and silver. Lack of negative news from Iraq also attracted sellers. The International Monetary Fund cut its growth forecast for the U.S. economy this year and said the Federal Reserve may have scope to keep interest rates at zero for longer than investors expect. The longer the US keeps interest rates zero, the higher are the chances of gold forming a medium foundation for another big rise. Like I mentioned yesterday in my reports, US economic growth till September will set the direction for gold till next year (assuming there is no significant escalation in Middle East risk and crude oil prices stabilize).
We just need to wait and watch for now. Failure to break $1297 in the next one week will result in gold prices falling to $1230 and below. Failure of silver to break $20.10 in the next week will result in silver falling to $18.70 and below. This is just a technical view. Right now gold and silver are in a neutral zone. Physical demand for gold and silver is more or less zero in India.
There is huge speculation that the Indian rupee could depreciate between two percent to five percent in the coming months, should crude oil prices stabilize at current prices and there is a failure of monsoon rains in India. We just need to wait for the direction of the rupee after the FOMC meeting. Currency movement will affect gold and silver prices in India.
Gold needs to trade over $1267 to be in bullish zone and target $1288. Silver needs to trade over $19.54 to be in a bullish zone. Speculation over the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting will dictate the movement of bullion.
MCX GOLD AUGUST – prices in Indian rupees below
Key resistance is at 27156 and only a break of 27156 will result in further gains. In case gold does not break and trade over 27156 by Friday, then it can fall to 26600 and 26250. Right now gold is in a neutral zone and needs to trade over 26842 to be in an intraday bullish zone.
MCX NATURAL GAS – prices in Indian rupees below
Key long term resistance is at 296 and only a break of 296 will result in further gains. As long as gas does not break 296, there are chances of a fall to 279 and 276. Momentum is bullish for natural gas. In my view, there are still huge short positions in gas.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
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UK session starts around 1:30 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories
US session starts at 6pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
COMEX GOLD – $15-$17
COMEX SILVER: $25-$30
COMEX COPPER: $3
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60
SPOT SILVER: $0.25
SPOT GOLD: $15-$17
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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-- Published: Tuesday, 17 June 2014 | E-Mail | Print | Source: GoldSeek.com