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By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Monday, 30 June 2014 | Print  | Disqus 

In the first quarter of this year, Natural gas was the star performer. In the second quarter Nickel was the star performer while gold, silver and crude oil also rose. I believe that the third quarter will go to gold and silver. Crude oil prices will be dependent on Iraq’s situation among others. Recent news reports suggest that Iraq could be broken up with ISIS controlling eastern-western areas, Kurdistan could be formed as a new nation. US and its allies could be comfortable controlling southern Iraq, where the major oil fields are.

US state election activities will pick up after Independence Day. The American political drama will begin next week and continue till early November. Policies and comments by the ruling administration in the USA will be orchestrated to sway voters to their side. War and energy prices are still a big issue in the mindset of the American people.

Key Events to watch in July to September quarter

  • Iraq and developments in major crude oil and natural gas producing regions will be the key.
  • US employment numbers: US employment numbers have to rise very sharply from current levels to push gold and silver in a very big bear zone.
  • Asian demand for gold and silver. Demand for gold and silver across Asia will rise around “Eid” towards the end of July and continue to rise till middle of November.
  • Euro/usd: The direction of the euro/usd will be the key. So far it has managed to trade over 1.3500. It will be either 1.28 or 1.47 for the euro/usd by early November. There will be nothing in between. Direction of euro/usd can affect the pace of rise and/or pace of fall of gold and silver.
  • Hurricanes (if any) in the Gulf of Mexico can effect bullion prices.
  • On the technical front gold has to break and trade over $1430 for a massive rise. Silver has to break and trade over $23.25 for a massive rise.

It is a shortened trading week. US Independence Day on Friday is a holiday. US June nonfarm payrolls will be released on Thursday (3rd July), 2014. This number will be the key as it could trigger the next direction for gold and silver as well as the US dollar. The European central bank meeting is there on Thursday. It will be quite a week for traders and investors.

Gold has to break $1355 this week for another set of rise with $1292 as the key support. Spot silver has to break and trade over $21.70 in the next two weeks for another set of rise. Physical demand in Asia will rise in the latter half of July.  The worst could be over for gold and silver.

TECHNICAL VIEW

MCX GOLD AUGUST 2014 – prices in Indian rupees below

Gold needs to trade over 27482 this week to target 27862-28332. Momentum is bullish. Bearish trend will be there if (a) gold does not break 28330 by next Monday (7th July) or (b) Gold falls below 27482.

COMEX COPPER SEPTEMBER 2014 – current price $316.70

Bullish over $314.40 with $320.40 -$326.20 as price target

Bearish below $309 with $306.10 and $302.00 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $309-$314.70

  • Key resistance is at $321 and a break of $321 will result in $323-$327
  • There will be buyers on dips as long as copper trades over $311 today

NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)  - current price $105.46

Bullish over $105.20 with $106.80 and $108.30 as price target

Bearish below $103.80 with $102.30 and $101.25 as price target

  • Crude oil needs to trade over $105.10 to prevent mild selling.
  • Remain on the sidelines.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

Trade without emotions

"Print this report only if absolutely necessary. Save Paper. Save Trees."

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT

Follow us on Twitter @insigniaconsul1

UK session starts around 1:30 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories

US session starts at 6pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)

PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS

PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.

APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT

COMEX GOLD – $15-$17

COMEX SILVER: $25-$30

COMEX COPPER: $3

NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60

SPOT SILVER: $0.25

SPOT GOLD: $15-$17

THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT

Customer care: 9311139549

You can also mail your queries at insigniacommodity@gmail.com

Chat Id: mcxsuretips@gmail.com (gtalk), insigniaconsultants@yahoo.com (yahoo)

              (10:30 am to 5:30 pm Indian time, Monday to Friday)

 


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