-- Published: Friday, 1 August 2014 | Print | Disqus
Gold and silver are looking bearish at the moment and can fall further. Gold needs to trade over $1276 and silver needs to trade over $2035 to prevent further selling. This month there will be sellers on any rise in gold as long as it does not break $1360 (only geopolitical risk and Asian demand can save gold in the short term). Silver will find sellers on any rise as long as it does not break $2230. Asian demand for silver will zoom this month if silver trades around $19.00 or below. We prefer a buy on sharp dips strategy with a stop loss below $1130 for August.
Gold December futures will last four months. Gold will be in a bearish zone if (a) Gold does not break $1410 in these four months (b) There is lack of interest by Asian buyers to buy gold (c) The US dollar continues to gain (d) Crude oil continues to fall.
US state elections are in three months. Crude oil prices will be the key. A lower crude oil price will create a dilemma for the investors on their US interest rate outlook for next year. On one hand lower energy prices implies higher growth and lower inflation. Low inflation will reduce chances of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve on or before the first quarter of next year. On the other hand higher growth always creates asset bubbles. Next year will be a real test for the Federal Reserve and investors on defusing early asset bubbles.
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX GOLD OCTOBER 2014 – prices in Indian Rupees below
Key support is at 27739 and gold needs to trade over 27739 to rise to 28120-28460. There will be another big wave of selling below 27739 to 27580 and 27360. Yesterday the Indian rupee had weakened against the US dollar. If the rupee weakens today also, then a fall (if any) in gold prices will be limited. We are against buying gold unless it breaks and trades over 28120. Jobbers watch 27960 all the time.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT) - current price $97.90
Bullish over $98.70 with $100.20 and $102.20 as price target
Bearish below $97.30 with $96.30 and $95.10 as price target
- Key support is at $97.30 till next week
- There will be another big wave of selling only below $97.30
- A daily close below $98.70 today and Monday will put crude oil in bearish zone.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
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UK session starts around 1:30 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories
US session starts at 6pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
COMEX GOLD – $15-$17
COMEX SILVER: $25-$30
COMEX COPPER: $3
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60
SPOT SILVER: $0.25
SPOT GOLD: $15-$17
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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-- Published: Friday, 1 August 2014 | E-Mail | Print | Source: GoldSeek.com
