-- Published: Thursday, 21 August 2014 | Print | Disqus
Gold and silver are looking bearish at the moment. Crude oil seems to be getting affected by triggered buy stop losses and covering by option traders. For now I am not concerned over the fall in gold and silver prices as this is a summer market. I will be concerned over the medium term fate of gold and silver if and only if they trade with a softer bias from the second week of September. Indian demand will be the key for gold and silver. I expect silver and gold demand to zoom in September and October if prices remain at the current prices. Indian gold premiums will be volatile in the next three months as the chances of gold imports opening is zilch. However I expect a sharp rise in silver premiums in India if prices stabilize around Rs.43000 per kilogram. We do not expect physical silver prices to fall below 35000 per kilogram over the next two months. One should use sharp falls (if any) to invest in physical silver for Diwali.
Fed officials raised the possibility that they may end aggressive stimulus sooner than anticipated while acknowledging continued slack in the jobs market. The Fed is on pace to wind down its monthly bond purchases in October, and intends to keep the benchmark interest rate low for a “considerable time” after that. Our view: The Federal Reserve will look at hiring till December and thereafter decide if there is a need to raise interest rate. Lower energy prices should result in higher employment and higher export of US made goods and services. A stabilization in labour markets at current rates till December should result in an interest rate hike by March.
Traders are looking forward to the Jackson hole meeting this weekend for further clarification on the fate of interest rates in USA and UK. Suspense, Hawkishness, Lack of clarity whatever phrase one might use will be evident. Global central bankers are back in Greenspan era where suspense and surprises were the key themes.
COMEX GOLD DECEMBER 2014 – current price $1290.30
Gold has to trade over $1280 on daily closing basis till the end of the month to prevent another wave of selling to $1240 and $1210. Overall gold is bearish as long as it trades below $1306.
MCX GOLD OCTOBER – PRICES IN INDIAN RUPEES BELOW
Gold can fall to 27948 and 27810 as long as it trades below 28410.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
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UK session starts around 1:30 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories
US session starts at 6pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
COMEX GOLD – $15-$17
COMEX SILVER: $25-$30
COMEX COPPER: $3
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60
SPOT SILVER: $0.25
SPOT GOLD: $15-$17
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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-- Published: Thursday, 21 August 2014 | E-Mail | Print | Source: GoldSeek.com