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Asian Metals Market Update

By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Monday, 1 September 2014 | Print  | Disqus 

China’s manufacturing PMI expanding at a slower pace than expected implies a continued period of slower growth. Slower Chinese growth will imply low demand for gold and silver. Wholesale demand for gold and silver will rise in September in India while retail demand for gold and silver in India will rise from the last week of September for a month. Traders will be looking forward to US August nonfarm payrolls for an early direction on an interest rate hike.

Ukraine is just a way to divert public interest from a failed Middle East foreign policy of NATO member countries and nothing else. NATO goes on butchering people and creates an illusion through its controlled media that it is being done by Russia. NATO has decided to give a $1 billion in aid to Ukraine. Where will the money come from? They will just print the money and nothing else. NATO is just printing money and creating more and more Libyas and Iraqs in the name of giving aid to nations. NATO just wants to convert the erstwhile Soviet Union into Iraq and Libya. There are more and more signals that another long term gold bull run is about to unfold. America and its ally’s manipulation of global financial markets will not run for a long time. Nations and people affected by 2013 emerging market mini crisis are already taking corrective measures.

However the US dollar will continue to command a safe haven status for the next ten years. The reason is simple. Nations like Japan, China and India have invested a majority of their portion of their US dollar currency reserves in US treasuries. If the USA moves into trouble, then these nations will sink. Nations will continue to invest in US treasuries but could at a snails pace reduce investment.

The USA and its European allies now want to take the war against the “Islamic state” to a global level. The war against the “Islamic state” will be a war against Islam as a religion. The UK and USA intelligence agencies know who are the financers of “Islamic state” and also know the people who create religious extremism. They will never arrest them as they are used for American interest. I would call them “too big to arrest people”.

Why and How is the extreme form of Islam expanding?

Let me take a dig into history. First of all I personally believe that the nation “Israel” should never have been formed. Western Europe and America had been mostly ruled by the Jews till the end of the sixties. They poked their nose in the Middle East and created the state of “Israel” and set up a base. After the creation of Middle East, they correctly estimated the ever rising demand for crude oil and other metals globally. They did everything to ensure that crude oil is priced in US dollar. Nations like Iraq which tried to move away billing crude oil in non US dollar forms were attacked in some pretext or the other. Iran was imposed trade sanctions. The people of Iraq were brutally tortured and killed. Unconfirmed reports suggest that Iraqi women were raped by NATO forces. The same things happened in Afghanistan. The Islamic common people were living a life where “hell” would be too simple to write. This created religious hatred among the people of this region which slowly has spread to Africa, most of Asia and moving into Europe and America. The “Islamic state” is the creation of decades of brutality by NATO allies in Asia and Africa towards Islamic people. The global “US dollar supremacy” has cost innumerable human lives which will never be a part of history.

Saddam Hussein, Hosni Mubarak or Gaddafi of Libya had all invested billions of US dollars of their crude oil revenues in the UK, Europe and USA. There is no account for that money. The whole world knows it. Christianity as a religion has had its fair share of controversies over the past two decades and has resulted in Christians converting to Islam in so called “white nations” of the world.

The young Islamic generations now want to take revenge for decades of atrocities caused to the people of their faith. The result is the creation of the “Islamic state” and other extremist Islamist jihadist groups. This is just the beginning and not the end. Europe and America over the coming years will be Asia.

Gold has to rise as a result of these developments. This pushes me to ask myself whether the next world war will be between two religions.


The progress of new trade sanctions imposed on Russia will be closely watched.  Gold has to fall below $1272 or break and trade over $1322 for direction this week. Silver needs to trade over $1900 in September to be in a bullish zone. Intraday volatility will be high. US markets are closed today.


COMEX GOLD DECEMBER 2014 – current price $1287.26

Bullish over $1286 with $1298.70 and $1312.30 price target

Bearish below $1280.00 with $1274.80 and $1264.10 as price target

Neutral Zone between $1280 and $1287

  • Gold needs to fall below $1276 or break and trade over $1298 for direction
  • One needs to trade very carefully between $1270-$1280 zone and $1295-$1305 zone.
  • There will be sellers if gold trades below $1287 either in UK session or US session.

Indian physical gold prices – trend for September

Gold has to trade over Rs.29300 to rise to Rs.30300-Rs.31400. Initial support is at Rs.28300. Gold buyers will vanish if there are indications that gold prices will remain below Rs.28300. For the whole of September and October as long as gold prices trade over Rs.27000-Rs.27500 zone downside risk will be limited. Gold premiums in India will remain low in the first two weeks of September and rise in the next two weeks. In case gold demand in India remains subdued in the last week of September then gold premiums will nosedive.

(Gold prices above Rs/10 grams. The above is for Indian physical gold prices. Please do not confuse with gold futures)

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

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UK session starts around 1:30 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories

US session starts at 6pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)




COMEX GOLD – $15-$17





SPOT GOLD: $15-$17


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