-- Published: Thursday, 18 September 2014 | Print | Disqus
FOMC meet has indicated that whenever interest rates start to rise it will be at a much faster pace than markets expect. There has been no change in the language. Traders are expecting Fed funds rates to rise to 1.3750 by end 2015. Over the past two years there can been an inverse relation between gold prices and US dollar-Japanese yen (usd/jpy). Usd/Jpy is now trading at 108.57. In case Usd/jpy trades over 110 for a few weeks, gold will see another wave of selling to $1045 and $987. The direction of Usd/jpy will be the key for gold prices apart from Asian demand fundamentals.
There is some section which believes that Federal Reserve will raise interest rates (till 2017) in every meeting once it starts to raise interest rates. The US debt market could go bust if there is continuous interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in every meeting. There can be an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in every meeting in 2015, but thereafter in 2016, I expect very few interest rates hike. 2016 is an election year in USA. There will be political implications if US interest rates rise at the pace as the investors now perceive (after FOMC meet).
Gold and silver bears can have the upper hand for the next twelve months. After twelve months the baton will pass to the bulls. Gold and silver will find it difficult to attract short term and medium term investors as of now. Long term gold and silver investors will be on the constant signs of bottom formation.
The Scottish Independence vote can still add some support. The margin between a “yes” vote and “no” vote will be key to me. The narrower the gap the better it will be for bullion.
Gold has a key long term support at $1145. This can tested if gold does not break $1277 in October.
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX GOLD DECEMBER 2014 – prices in Indian Rupees below
Key support is at 26960. There will be another wave of selling only if gold trades below 26960 to 26553. or in case gold does not trades over 27343 by tomorrow. Jobbers watch 27130 all the time.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT) - current price $93.94
Bullish over $93.40 with $96.10-$98.90 as price target
Bearish below $92.20 with $90.90 and $89.10 as price target
- Better to remain on the sidelines in crude oil as it needs to trade over $93.60 to prevent another wave of selling.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
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UK session starts around 1:30 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories
US session starts at 6pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
COMEX GOLD – $15-$17
COMEX SILVER: $25-$30
COMEX COPPER: $3
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60
SPOT SILVER: $0.25
SPOT GOLD: $15-$17
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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-- Published: Thursday, 18 September 2014 | E-Mail | Print | Source: GoldSeek.com
