-- Published: Monday, 29 September 2014 | Print | Disqus
Indian demand for gold and silver will rise this week. This is a big festival week in India. India goes on a holiday from midweek. Indian demand will certainly be on the higher side. But there is a change in perception among gold and silver buyers. Due to falling prices in gold and silver, the retail gold and silver buyers are postponing their purchases whereas at the beginning of the year, it was just the reverse with demand getting preponed.
One should start looking at investing in physical silver in small quantities. Under the worst case scenario silver will not fall below $12.00-$12.50 (in the next two years) with a very real possibility of a rise to minimum $27.00 and $35.00 (in the next two years). I will prefer to invest either in physical silver or a silver ETF and not in silver futures for the long term due to volatility in silver spreads between future contracts. Fundamentals will also be supporting silver as the excess supplies in silver will reduce. In two years I foresee silver supplies moving into a deficit zone from a surplus zone. With any price fall, silver will move into undervalued territory. However silver will still test the patience of the long term investor.
The European Central Bank will announce its decision on monetary policy and the Bank of Japan will release its Tankan business confidence survey. US September nonfarm payrolls will give us an insight on the start of the rise of interest rates. This will set the trend for gold and silver. For October as long as gold and silver trade over $1180 and $16.80 downside risk will be limited.
TODAY
Gold needs to trade over $1216 to rise to $1230 and $1272. We prefer a buy on any $15-$20 dips strategy with a stop loss below $1194 for tomorrow. Silver can rise to $1803 and $1900 as long as it trades over $1720.
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX GOLD DECEMBER 2014 – prices in Indian Rupees below
Intraday support starts at 26724 with 26260 as the key weekly support. Gold needs to trade over 26724 today to rise to 27200 and 27515. There will be sellers if (a) gold trades below 26724 either in UK session or US session or (b) Gold does not break 27200 today.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
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UK session starts around 1:30 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories
US session starts at 6pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
COMEX GOLD – $15-$17
COMEX SILVER: $25-$30
COMEX COPPER: $3
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60
SPOT SILVER: $0.25
SPOT GOLD: $15-$17
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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-- Published: Monday, 29 September 2014 | E-Mail | Print | Source: GoldSeek.com
