-- Published: Tuesday, 30 September 2014 | Print | Disqus
Apprehensions that a better than expected US jobs number could trigger an interest rate rise by the Federal Reserve this year has resulted in traders not going long in gold and silver. I believe in a contrarian call to go long in both of them. Technically also momentum indicators are highly oversold and a trend reversal can happen anytime. Geopolitical risks are not supporting bullion prices at the moment but can support anytime.
The long term support for gold is at $1126 with $1426 as the key resistance. Over the next twelve months gold has to fall below $1126 or break and trade over $1426 for direction. Only a daily close below $1126 for five consecutive days will start the next big collapse in gold (similar to the collapse below $1530).
As far as Indian physical gold prices are concerned, in the next twelve months as gold has to fall below Rs.24,000 or break and trade over Rs.30,000. To me if gold prices fall below Rs.24000, it should attract some serious long term gold investors in India. Currency traders are expecting the euro/usd to fall to 1.20 in the next year. The Rupee may be affected marginally by strong gains in the US dollar. Fiscal deficit reduction, food price inflation control and ability of the NDA government to ensure smooth passage of key reform bills in both houses of the parliament will affect the Indian rupee more than global factors. The Reserve bank of India is prepared for interest rates hike by the Federal Reserve up to one percent. (The above gold price forecast is based on the assumption that US dollar-Indian Rupee exchange rate does not fall below Rs.58.00. Gold prices are per ten grams).
Energies are looking bullish at the moment.
TECHNICAL VIEW
COMEX SILVER DCEMBER 2014 – current price $1746.50
Bullish over $1743 with $1796 and $1861 as price target
Bearish below $1720 with $1703-$1685 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $1720-$1743
- Silver needs to trade over $1720 this week to rise to $1830 and $1919.
- There will be sellers if and only if silver trades below $1743 either in UK session or US session.
- Jobbers watch $1740 all the time.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT) - current price $94.27
Bullish over $93.30 with $95.20-$98.10 as price target
Bearish below $92.20 with $91.60 and $90.70 as price target
- Crude oil can rise to $96.10 and $98.00 as long as it trades over $93.60
- There will be sellers only below $93.60.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
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UK session starts around 1:30 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories
US session starts at 6pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
COMEX GOLD – $15-$17
COMEX SILVER: $25-$30
COMEX COPPER: $3
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60
SPOT SILVER: $0.25
SPOT GOLD: $15-$17
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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-- Published: Tuesday, 30 September 2014 | E-Mail | Print | Source: GoldSeek.com
