-- Published: Monday, 27 October 2014 | Print | Disqus
India returns to normalcy this week. But Indian demand (for gold and silver) will remain subdued and should start to pickup from next week. This is also an FOMC meet. The direction of gold and silver after the Federal Reserve meet should continue for the rest of the year. Next week, there are all important US senate elections on 4th November. US October nonfarm payrolls will be there on 7th November.
Twenty-five banks failed a stress test led by the European Central Bank, which said almost half of them must act to raise more capital. This has already been factored in by the markets and will not affect the current trend of the euro.
There are lots of US economic data releases and central bank meetings over the next two weeks. The next two weeks are very crucial for gold, silver and the US dollar. The trend (in gold, silver and the US dollar) after the next two weeks should continue till the end of January. Bullion investors will return if and only if there is solid indication of a near term bottom formation. The direction of gold, silver and the US dollar can change sides very quickly. One needs to trade very carefully in the next two weeks.
There is evidence that ISIS used chemical weapons against Iraqi soldiers. Still the NATO leaders ignore such things. I suspect that in the name of dropping arms to the Kurds, the NATO allies are also covertly supplying arms to ISIS. The NATO leaders are saying one thing and doing just the reverse. Indications are there that a new nation will be formed in the Middle East. ISIS is a now more than nation. I have my doubts over the continuity of manipulation of gold and silver by NATO nations. Sooner than later the manipulators will be laid to rest. Global circumstances make me believe that one needs to increase his long term investment allocation to hard assets. In the next six months gold and silver should form a long term bottom (if they continue to fall). The quicker the fall, the quicker are the chances of a long term bottom formation.
TECHNICAL VIEW
COMEX GOLD DECEMBER 2014 – current price $1230.10
Bullish over $1223 with $1238.10 and $1258.80 price target
Bearish below $1215.00 with $1206.10 and $1199.00 as price target
Neutral Zone between $1215 and $1223
- Gold needs to trade over $1223 to rise to $1248 and $1266
- There will be sellers only if gold trades below $1223 in the US session in case gold does not break $1243 today.
MCX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT) - prices in Indian rupees below
Key weekly support is at 4881. Crude oil needs to trade over 4881 to rise to 5135 and 5285. Initial resistance is at 5055. There will be sellers (a) If crude oil trades below 4881 (b) Crude oil does not break 5135 anytime. Jobbers watch 4985.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
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UK session starts around 1:30 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories
US session starts at 6pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
COMEX GOLD – $15-$17
COMEX SILVER: $25-$30
COMEX COPPER: $3
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60
SPOT SILVER: $0.25
SPOT GOLD: $15-$17
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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-- Published: Monday, 27 October 2014 | E-Mail | Print | Source: GoldSeek.com
