-- Published: Wednesday, 12 November 2014 | Print | Disqus
I read a lot of stories on the internet that gold prices will never recover in the next five years. Let us a take a dig at history first. (A) In the second decade of every century, there have always been an increase in the number of wars, history is also repeating itself with Middle East, North Africa and Ukraine being turned into graveyard. NATO expansionist attitude has created a war like zone. (B) In the second decade of every century, there has been a big change in the global political scenario. The worst American (with respect to global peace) president Barack Obama will go away. Europe including the UK will see big political leadership changes in the next four years. French and Italian premiers and their parties are most likely to lose elections. UK prime minister Cameroon and his political party are not at ease dealing with Islamic State which will have strong political ramifications. There has been a very sharp increase in religious radicalism in Europe. (C) Global super powers change hands which starts in the second decade of the century. The USA is a super power and will continue to be a super power. However smaller nations have realized that they need to need to move away from NATO form of colonization. By the end of the decade the dictating power of the USA will reduce considerably and also the global purchasing power of paper currencies.
The above are just a few examples where history is repeating itself and makes me believe that one needs to remain invested in gold. However my preference has always been physical gold over gold ETF investment and gold futures investment. To Indians the ideal long term aggressive gold investment is around Rs.23000 (per ten grams) and below in the next two years if prices fall. I believe that global leadership changes will be bullish for gold.
The problem with gold and investors is that they are very short sighted and most of them want to make a very quick buck. Bullion investors need severe patience. Financial markets have a tendency to overshoot and undershoot. I remember that last year in 2013, when Indian stock markets crashed, most of the people thought that Indian stock markets will not recover for a few years. Now Indian stock indices are at a life time high. The same will happen to gold and silver but it will take a longer time. The best way to invest in gold is buying small physical quantities every month.
TECHNICAL VIEW
COMEX GOLD DECEMBER 2014 – current price $1164.40
Bullish over $1154 with $1181.00 and $1220.00 price target
Bearish below $1137.00 with $1121.70 and $1109.10 as price target
Neutral Zone between $1137 and $1154
- Gold needs to fall below $1143 or break and trade over $1183 for direction.
- There will be another wave of selling if gold trades below $1154 either in the UK session or the US session.
MCX GOLD DECEMBER 2014 – prices in Indian Rupees below
Gold needs to trade over 25770 today to rise to 26056-26256-26512. The region between 25640-25770 is a neutral zone. There will be another wave of selling below 25640 to 25470 and 25360. A long term technical breakdown will be there if gold trades below 25360 any day in the US session.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT) - current price $77.50
Bullish over $77.10 with $80.70-$83.10 as price target
Bearish below $76.10 with $75.40 and $74.20 as price target
- Crude oil can rise to $82.20 and $85.10 by next week as long as it trades over $76.57
- Jobbers watch $77.70.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
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UK session starts around 1:30 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories
US session starts at 6pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
COMEX GOLD – $15-$17
COMEX SILVER: $25-$30
COMEX COPPER: $3
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60
SPOT SILVER: $0.25
SPOT GOLD: $15-$17
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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-- Published: Wednesday, 12 November 2014 | E-Mail | Print | Source: GoldSeek.com
