-- Published: Friday, 14 November 2014 | Print | Disqus
Weakness of the Japanese Yen against the US dollar is preventing a rise in gold and silver. Yen price movement has been one of the key contributors of gold and silver’s price rise since 2003. Yen price swings will affect bullion prices. Lower crude oil prices are also preventing gold and silver from a rise. Nymex crude oil has completed one full circle of rise and fall at $74.07. It will not be easy for Nymex crude oil to fall below $67.15 for the next six months. The key long term support is at $67.15. Long term crude oil investors will invest in a big way if prices fall around $67.15 (Nymex) any time for the rest of the year and next year.
Huge speculation of further curbs on gold imports by India and my view
After the release of Indian gold import figures yesterday by world gold council, there has been huge speculation of further curbs in official gold imports in India. Even some of the top jewelers in different parts of India are increasing their gold inventory (with a hedge) in anticipation of curbs on imports. My personal view is that the government should ignore September to November gold import numbers as they are due to festivals and the arrival of the Hindu marriage season. In case India’s gold imports rise from December and/or there are indications from early December, then gold imports curbs should be implemented in a big way.
Another way to interpret the government of India’s move to curb gold imports (if any) is that the Indian government think tank expects that global gold prices will fall very sharply from here which can hyper inflate the Indian import bill and add pressures to fiscal management of the nation.
TECHNICAL VIEW
COMEX GOLD DECEMBER 2014 – current price $1159.00
Bullish over $1154 with $1181.00 and $1220.00 price target
Bearish below $1137.00 with $1121.70 and $1109.10 as price target
Neutral Zone between $1137 and $1154
- Gold needs to fall below $1143 or break and trade over $1183 for direction.
- There will be another wave of selling if gold trades below $1154 either in the UK session or the US session.
- Jobbers watch $1160
MCX SILVER DECCEMBER – prices in Indian rupees below
Key short resistance is at 35418. As long as silver does not break 35418 it will consolidate in 34113-34808-35418 range. Key price to watch is at 34808
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
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UK session starts around 1:30 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories
US session starts at 6pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
COMEX GOLD – $15-$17
COMEX SILVER: $25-$30
COMEX COPPER: $3
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60
SPOT SILVER: $0.25
SPOT GOLD: $15-$17
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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-- Published: Friday, 14 November 2014 | E-Mail | Print | Source: GoldSeek.com
