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2015: Factors to Watch Out For Gold, Silver and Other Metals and Energies

By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Monday, 29 December 2014 | Print  | Disqus 

At the beginning of 2014, very few expected crude oil to fall to $54, very few expected silver to fall like anything. No one expected Indian stock markets to rise to new historical highs. The Crimean issue resulting in the global isolation of Russia was also never expected. The “Islamic State” was not there at the beginning of 2014. Every year brings in new uncertainties. We can just try to assess before what might come so that we can prepare ourselves.

The Core Themes for 2015

  • NATO expansion.
  • How long can Russia not succumb to NATO imposed global sanctions.
  • The spread of the Islamic state. The faster the spread the greater are the chances that gold and silver will restart another big bull run.
  • The US economy and US Interest rates. A continued rise in US economic growth will result in greater chances of an interest rate rise quickly. The multiplier effect will be in the form of a very strong US dollar, weakness in emerging market currencies, gold and silver could fall first and then rise.
  • Global interest rate scenario: Monetary expansion (if any) by the European central bank and the Bank of Japan will affect currency markets and commodity markets alike. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are expected to restart increasing interest rate hikes in 2015 and continue for a few years more.
  • Ukraine was unexpected this year. I am now asking myself which nation will be next on NATO’s radar expansion. Nations are being held ransom on NATO imposed trade isolation. This should be positive for gold and silver and other safe havens.
  • Demand from Asia as well as Europe. Traders and investors are focused on demand for bullion from Asia. Asian demand for gold and silver will continue to rise. However a big thrust for bullion will come if European physical demand for bullion rises. I expect gold and silver demand from Europe to zoom in 2015.
  • Central bank buying and selling. The USA by crashing crude oil prices is trying to ensure that the energy exporting nations sell their gold reserves. Crashing of oil prices is also another way to prevent the slide of the value of the US dollar. I foresee European central banks and Asian central banks to be net buyers in gold. Some of the energy exporters such as Russia, Venezuela (anti NATO nations) may be net sellers of gold.
  • Deflation or Inflation which bothers most of central bankers. Deflation is more supportive to gold and silver prices in the long term than inflation. Less inflation or deflation will affect central bank monetary policy.

There will be other factors which will come and go. In the second half of the second decade of every century, nations boundaries have changed, there is more mass unrest (now seen across the USA, Europe apart from usual Asia and Africa), religion of the masses changes. Islam is the religion of the coming years. The numbers of followers of other religions will move into a minority zone. I see history repeating itself. This itself is a hyper bullish for gold and silver to rise.

Technically speaking in 2015 gold can rise to $1530 and $1730 as long as it trades over $980. Silver can rise to $2235 and $2765 in 2015 as long as it trades over $1225. Long term unrecoverable technical breakdown only below $980 for gold and $1225 for silver.

The best way to invest in gold and silver is either to invest for the very long term (eighteen months and more) with a very high patience OR invest for the very short term (one week to three weeks) using trailing stop losses below key long term support. An exit strategy has to be in place for very short term gold and silver investors so as to limit losses in days when there are extreme price movements.

Just remember that no one is invincible. Gold was not invincible. The US dollar is not invincible. Central bank manipulation of gold and silver prices will also not be invincible. Have a great 2015.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Website Prepared by Chintan Karnani

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