-- Published: Monday, 12 January 2015 | Print | Disqus
US December nonfarm payrolls portrays a very rosy picture of the American economy. Economic data releases suggest that interest rates in USA the should rise sooner than later. The FOMC meeting on the 28th of January is the key event to look for. Gold and silver will zoom if there are any indications that interest rates will not be raised is the USA.
Currency wars can be there
Currency market valuations affect the economic performance of a nation in a globalized world. The central banks key job is to ensure that currency valuations do not affect a nation’s export competitiveness for the nation. The US dollar has been stronger for the past year against almost every currency market of the world. The Japanese yen, euro and other currencies are weak against the US dollar. These nations are seeing long term large increases in exports from Asia and other nations.
Federal Reserve tolerance levels to US dollar gains will be the key. FOMC statement guidance on the future of US interest rate hikes will be dictated by US dollar price movement. The world will see an implicit currency war between central bankers this year. Currency carry trades which has been dead for the past few years should revive this year. The revival of currency carry trades (if any) this year should be positive for bullion and emerging market currencies.
Europe is going through a cultural shift and religious shift
The racial attack in France will have long term implications all across Europe. It is very clear that French intelligence had known the terrorists for a long time. I personally believe that French intelligence were using the terrorists for their own benefits in Middle East. But they failed.
Europe is going through what India went through in the early eighties. India had started witnessing “US sponsored and Pakistan supported” beginning of Islamic terrorism. Europe will be similar to India. Peace in Europe will soon be history. There will be increased and frequent Islamic attacks. Maybe there will be suicide bombers roaming in the streets of European nations. The largely peaceful European Christians will now be more open against Islamists. They will rally against all forms of immigration.
The end result will be greater demand for physical gold and silver by the Europeans in the future. Asian demand for gold and silver will not fall. Fundamentals will be the next big driver for another supersonic gold and silver Bull Run. But hold on, this will be there from the end of 2016.
(The above paragraph is not intended to say wrong against any religion or hurt any religious sentiment. I am just trying to portray reality).
European central bank meeting will be the key.
COMEX GOLD FEBRUARY 2015
Key support: $1184 and $1196
Key resistances: $1227.30 and $1251.90
(A) Gold needs to trade over $1227 for the whole week to attract short covering and a subsequent increase in long positions and a rise to $1252 and $1278
(B) Big very quick rise will be there only if gold trades over $1227 in a US session any day.
(C) On the lower side there is a technical congestion between $1184 and $1196.
(D) Bearish trend will be there if gold trades below $1196 in the US session or gold does not break $1244 this week.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)
Key support: $43.49 and $45.41
Key resistances: $49.78 and $52.82
- (A) There is a technical congestion between $42.30 and $45.40. Crude oil needs to trade over this zone till end February to rise to $52.82 and $57.70.
- (B) Initial resistance is at $49.80
- Momentum is bearish but technically oversold.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
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UK session starts around 1:30 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories
US session starts at 6pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
COMEX GOLD – $15-$17
COMEX SILVER: $25-$30
COMEX COPPER: $3
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60
SPOT SILVER: $0.25
SPOT GOLD: $15-$17
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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-- Published: Monday, 12 January 2015 | E-Mail | Print | Source: GoldSeek.com