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Asian Metals Market Update



By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Wednesday, 28 January 2015 | Print  | Disqus 

Incoming US economic data releases before the FOMC suggest that a softer tone on interest rates could be adopted. But whether that will translate into big gains for gold and silver will be dependent on the ability to break past key medium term resistances. However in spite and despite everything, I still remain positive on silver for the medium term to long term and will use the fall ((if any) after the FOMC meet in silver to invest for next year. Long term physical silver investors can buy silver at current prices in small quantities and average it out on any ten percent dip (if any). But for physical silver investors, I need to say one thing, have patience.

 

The Indian stock markets and US stock markets have been offering much better investment return than gold and silver or any base metals. I still believe that gold and silver have to be a part of everyone’s long term portfolio even at current prices. In India selected stocks will offer more than double the return of gold and silver, but still as a hedge or as a safe haven everyone still needs to have physical gold and silver in their portfolio. In India the real estate sector should give bullion big competition this year. But very small savings can be invested in gold, silver or selected stock and not real estate.

 

In India taxation advantage in stock markets also lures people to invest directly or indirectly through mutual funds. Gold and silver do not have the taxation advantage as that of stock markets. Unless there are clear signals that gold and silver will give a return of over eighteen percent per year, the pace of Indian investment demand for gold and silver will be on the slower side. (I treat jewelry investment and pure physical gold and silver investment as separate). If silver shows signs of a sustained bull run, it could attract more investment demand as people’s perceptions change and their eyes open. In the long term as long as physical silver prices trade over Rs.31000 per kilogram, the chances of a rise to Rs.48,000 and Rs.63,000 per kilogram will be very high. ( A big unrecoverable crash will be there only if physical silver prices trade below Rs.31000 per kilogram for a few days at anytime for the rest of the year.) There is a lot of speculation that India could cut custom duties on gold and silver this year. If it happens then investment return could fall.

 

COMEX TECHNICAL VIEW

COMEX GOLD FEBRUARY 2015 – current price $1290.70

Bullish over $1289.50 with $1301.10 and $1313.80 price target

Bearish below $1284.10 with $1274.80 and $1262.10 as price target

Neutral Zone between $1284.10 and $1289.50

Jobbers aggressive buy over: $1290 (if gold trades over this price in the UK/US session) for $1297 and $1313 stop loss $1284.90

Jobbers aggressive sell below: $1282.10 (if gold falls below this price either in the UK/US session) for $1277.60-$1271.10 and $1262.20 stop loss $1285.10

  • Gold can still rise to $1313 and $1342 as long as it trades over the $1260-$1284 zone.
  • Remain on the sidelines. There will be another wave of rise if gold trades over $1290 either in the UK session or the US session.
  • Jobbers watch $1284 and $1296 all the time.

MCX GOLD FEBRUARY 2015 – PRICES IN INDIAN RUPEES BELOW

Gold needs to fall below 27710 or break and trade over 28056 for another one way rise. Key support till Friday is at 27540 and as long as gold trades over 27540, the overall bullish trend is intact.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

Trade without emotions

"Print this report only if absolutely necessary. Save Paper. Save Trees."

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT

Follow us on Twitter @insigniaconsul1

UK session starts around 1:30 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories

US session starts at 6pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)

PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS

PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.

APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT

COMEX GOLD – $15-$17

COMEX SILVER: $25-$30

COMEX COPPER: $3

NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60

SPOT SILVER: $0.25

SPOT GOLD: $15-$17

THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT

Customer care: 9311139549

You can also mail your queries at insigniacommodity@gmail.com

Chat Id: mcxsuretips@gmail.com (gtalk), insigniaconsultants@yahoo.com (yahoo)

              (10:30 am to 5:30 pm Indian time, Monday to Friday)

 


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