-- Published: Sunday, 1 February 2015 | Print | Disqus
This is a US nonfarm payrolls week. Over the past few months there has been more action on days before the release of this number than after the release of this number. Many a times the reaction to the number have been subdued. Another thing which confuses me is the whether a really good number (if any) can actually sway the investor to shun gold and invest elsewhere. Most of the good news of the US economy has already been factored in.
The US economy could see a couple of months of consolidation phase and thereafter a period of another wave of higher growth rates. Investor’s dilemma towards bullion could increase if the US economy moves into a consolidation phase. I will also not ignore the possibility of the Federal Reserve “crying wolf” on interest rates. The Federal Reserve can raise interest rates till April next year. NATO expansionist policies can continue till April 2016. Whatever crap the US president does to increase the miseries of Americans living in America and increase the miseries of the world population will be till April 2016. The period from May 2016, will begin the American election process. The American voters are no idiots. The will elect someone who is responsible to Americans and someone who will try to ensure a world peace. For a few months from May 2016, American politicians will be governing for the masses. What I mean to convey is that gold and silver prices will zoom once there are any indications that US interest rates will not rise anymore.
Low global energy prices and low global interest rates so far has not translated into higher global growth. The cost of living is on the rise in every nation. I always maintain that unless the cost of survival essentials stabilize, there will be uneven growth within every country and among countries. This uneven growth if not controlled within nation causes mass unrest like the ones in Southern Europe. The end result is higher demand for safe havens.
COMEX TECHNICAL VIEW
COMEX GOLD APRIL 2015 – current price $1280.90
Bullish over $1274.10 with $1292.40 and $1307.10 price target
Bearish below $1261.10 with $1254.80 and $1238.70 as price target
Neutral Zone between $1261.10 and $1274.10
Jobbers aggressive buy over: $1282 (if gold trades over this price in UK/US session) for $1287 and $1297 stop loss $1278.10
Jobbers aggressive sell below: $1271.70 (at any time of the day) for $1264.60-$1259.10 and $1247.60 stop loss $1274.70
- The region between $1260-$1290 is a neutral zone to bullish zone. The next big one way move will be either on a fall below $1260 or on a break of $1290
- Remain on the sidelines.
- Jobbers watch $1279 and $1290 all the time.
MCX April 2015 – prices in Indian Rupees below
(A) Either gold breaks and trades over 28556 this week (by Friday close) or it will break down to 26899. There will be nothing in between.
(B) The current 27300-28300 range will be broken anytime.
(C) We prefer to be on the long side as long as gold trades over 27200.
(D) There will be a big crash if gold trades below 27200 in US session any day.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT) - current price $46.78
Bullish over $45.40 with $49.66-$52.20 as price target
Bearish below $44.60 with $43.70 and $42.10 as price target
Jobbers buy over: $47.30 stop loss $46.70 for $49.10-$52.20
Jobbers sell below: $46.10 stop loss $46.70 for $45.10 and $42.70
Others/Limit order: Buy crude oil at $39.00 stop loss $37.60 for $48.90-$52.30
- Crude oil will break free from $42-$48-$52.20 range and form a new range anytime.
- We prefer to remain on the sidelines this week.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
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UK session starts around 1:30 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories
US session starts at 6pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
COMEX GOLD – $15-$17
COMEX SILVER: $25-$30
COMEX COPPER: $3
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60
SPOT SILVER: $0.25
SPOT GOLD: $15-$17
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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-- Published: Sunday, 1 February 2015 | E-Mail | Print | Source: GoldSeek.com