-- Published: Thursday, 12 February 2015 | Print | Disqus
COMEX FUTURES REPORT
Gold has a key support at the 100 day moving average of $1217.10. The next wave of selling will be if gold trades below $1217.10 either in the UK session or the US session. US retail numbers today will be the key and can set the direction for the US dollar and bullion for the next three weeks. Over the past few months, there has been an increase in the US savings rate. An increase in the savings rate implies less consumption. Increases in employment numbers may not necessary translate into higher consumption.
In case US retail sale numbers are below street expectations then the US dollar could take a drubbing and that will give gold and silver yet another chance this year to rise. I am not advising to aggressively go short despite the current downward momentum.
However in case gold and silver fall throughout the day, then there will be a massive increase in net short positions which will continue to rise till early March. Today’s session is very crucial for bullion.
The Delhi drubbing of the Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) in delhi state elections can delay the speculated import duty cut on gold and silver. The upcoming budget will be slightly populist. The Modi government had been laying the foundations for a long term growth ever since it came to power last year. However voters in India are just swayed by short term needs and dictats by religious heads and the price has been paid by the BJP. (Please note that I am a national first and then have a bias towards communism).
TODAY
Wait and wait before going long in bullion. Silver will see another wave of selling only if it trades below $1644 either in the UK session or the US session. We are against going long in silver at current prices. Trade carefully and look for signs of trend reversal.
COMEX GOLD APRIL 2015 TECHNICAL LEVELS |
SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 |
$1,198.60 | $1,212.30 | $1,217.10 | $1,220.80 | $1,227.10 | $1,232.80 | $1,241.90 | $1,252.50 |
SILVER MARCH 2015 TECHNICAL LEVELS |
SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 |
$1,594.10 | $1,623.30 | $1,640.60 | $1,666.00 | $1,697.00 | $1,714.00 | $1,728.00 | $1,773.50 |
COPPER MARCH 2015 TECHNICAL LEVELS |
SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 |
$243.80 | $247.90 | $250.10 | $252.40 | $256.30 | $258.90 | $262.90 | $266.60 |
CRUDE OIL (1st Contract) |
SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 |
$45.10 | $46.40 | $47.60 | $48.90 | $50.40 | $51.20 | $52.10 | $53.70 |
All prices are in US dollar ($) above. Only for reference |
COMEX TECHNICAL VIEW
COMEX GOLD APRIL 2015 – current price $122290
Bullish over $1229.10 with $1237.90 and $1252.40 price target
Bearish below $1217.10 with $1205.40 and $1194.80 as price target
Neutral Zone between $1217.10 and $1229.10
Jobbers aggressive buy over: $1229 (if gold trades over this price in the UK/US session) for $1233.10 and $1237.10 stop loss $1226.70
Jobbers aggressive sell below: $1217.00 (at any time of the day) for $1211.30 and $1204.10 stop loss $1216.10
- There will be a technical breakdown below $1217 to $1205 and below
- Jobbers watch $1231.10 and $1217.00 all the time.
- A daily close below $1217 today will be bearish for gold for next week.
COMEX SILVER MARCH 2015 – current price $1673.50
Bullish over $1677 with $1737 and $1796 as price target
Bearish below $1661 with $1646 and $1621 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $1661-$1677
Jobbers aggressive buy over: $1705 (if silver trades over this price either in the UK session or the US session) stop loss $1691 for $1731-$1751 and $1786.
Jobbers aggressive sell below: $1666 (if silver trades below this price in the UK/US session today) stop loss $1681 for $1649 and $1602.
- Silver needs to trade over $1666.00 to rise to $1731 and $1773
- The region between $1649 and $1681 is an anything can happen zone. Trade carefully in this zone.
- A daily close below $1666 will be bearish for silver till next week.
COMEX COPPER MARCH 2014 – current price $254.15
Bullish over $258.50 with $264.20 -$273.40 as price target
Bearish below $252.90 with $247.80-$241.50 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $252.90 and $258.50
- Copper needs to trade over $252 to rise to $259
- There will be there sellers only if copper trades below $252 either in the UK session or the US session.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT) - current price $49.56
Bullish over $48.90 with $50.90-$52.30 as price target
Bearish below $48.10 with $47.10 and $45.90 as price target
Jobbers buy over: $50.10 stop loss $49.70 for $50.90-$51.40
Jobbers sell below: $48.90 stop loss $49.40 for $48.10 and $46.90
- Crude oil needs to trade over $48.90 today to rise to $51.70-$54.10
- There will be another wave of selling if crude oil trades below $48.90 either in the UK session or the US session.
- A daily close below $47.90 tomorrow will be bearish for next week.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
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UK session starts around 1:30 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories
US session starts at 6pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
COMEX GOLD – $15-$17
COMEX SILVER: $25-$30
COMEX COPPER: $3
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60
SPOT SILVER: $0.25
SPOT GOLD: $15-$17
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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-- Published: Thursday, 12 February 2015 | E-Mail | Print | Source: GoldSeek.com
