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Asian Metals Market Update



By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Monday, 16 February 2015 | Print  | Disqus 

The demand trend from China of gold and silver due to the Chinese New Year is very important for the short term. Indian gold and silver demand are expected to rise as the year progresses. In my view from 2016, Indian and Chinese demand for bullion will zoom. This will change the fundamentals and ensure that short positions get converted into long positions.

 

In other words 2016 should the reverse of 2014. The Federal Reserve will start and stop to raise interest rates by the middle of June 2016. After June 2016, I expect a very long pause in US interest rate hikes which could support bullion investment. The Federal Reserve can raise interest rates between one percent to one and a half percent in the next sixteen months. Thereafter a long pause will be there and the next US president (after Barack Obama) will call the shots on interest rates.

 

Norway is worried that some of its citizens are at key posts in the Islamic state army. Europeans control most of the Islamic state key army positions while Asians and Africans do the rest. The world is still taking the Islamic state lightly. There are only serious words to soothe the people which is followed by absolute almost inaction. In order to divert the attention of masses from the Islamic state, Ukraine and Greece issues have been created. I have never heard the USA taking serious action against Boko Horom in Africa as they continue with their daily human scavenging activity.  I see only fear for the masses in every part of the world. This global fear should be the cause of the next parabolic rise in gold and silver. Oh yes, central banks are net buyers in gold.

 

The plunge protection team (PPT) constituted by every nation to ensure that stock markets do not crash will someday reach a bubble zone. Manipulation of currencies by central banks for economic growth and/or political motives is at its decade peak. This should also reach a point of no return by next year which is when bullion will start its massive rise. However, I still say for this year, one needs to be patient.

 

Globally, there is a huge political change. In India we have the “Aam Aadmi Party” (AAP) which is the result of traditional political parties looting the people since Independence. The National democratic alliance (NDA) hype is over. In Delhi, people are dissatisfied over issues such as Uber taxi rape issues, inability to bring down prices of food and other surviving essentials, roads being dug up for new infrastructure but not being completed among other key issues affecting the daily lives of people. There will be more Indian style “Aam Aadmi Party” in every part of the world over the coming years. This will ensure the death of some of the historical political parties. Global political churning should be bullish for bullion and other safe havens.

 

TODAY

US markets are closed today. Trade carefully and look for signs of trend reversal.

TECHNICAL VIEW

COMEX GOLD APRIL 2015 – current price $1232.40

Bullish over $1219.10 with $1240.60 and $1265.80 price target

Bearish below $1212.20 with $1204.60 and $1192.10 as price target

Neutral Zone between $1212.10 and $1219.10

Jobbers aggressive buy over: $1234 (if gold trades over this price in UK/US session) for $1240.60 and $1252.10 stop loss $1229.70

Jobbers aggressive sell below: $1223.00 (at any time of the day) for $1219.90 and $1212.10 stop loss $1226.80

  • There will be a technical breakdown below $1217 to $1205 and below
  • Jobbers watch $1231.10 and $1217.00 all the time.

MCX  SILVER MARCH 2015 – prices in Indian rupees below

View for the next two weeks (till future close): Silver can rise to 40302 and 41699 as long as it trades over 36045. Bearish trend will be there (a) Silver does not break 40302 in the next two weeks (b) silver trades below 36675 in US session any day.

Today’s view: Silver can rise to 38861 and 39339 as long as it trades over 37541. There will be sellers only if silver trades below 37541 or silver does not break 38483 today.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)  - current price $52.57

Bullish over $51.00 with $55.70-$56.50 as price target

Bearish below $49.80 with $49.00 and $46.70 as price target

Jobbers buy over: $53.10 stop loss $52.40 for $54.10-$55.70

Jobbers sell below: $50.40 stop loss $51.10 for $49.30 and $48.10

  • Crude oil can rise to 54.50-55.70 as long as it trades over 51.00
  • There will be another wave of selling if crude oil trades below $51.00 either in UK session or US session.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

Trade without emotions

"Print this report only if absolutely necessary. Save Paper. Save Trees."

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT

Follow us on Twitter @insigniaconsul1

UK session starts around 1:30 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories

US session starts at 6pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)

PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS

PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.

APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT

COMEX GOLD – $15-$17

COMEX SILVER: $25-$30

COMEX COPPER: $3

NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60

SPOT SILVER: $0.25

SPOT GOLD: $15-$17

THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT

Customer care: 9311139549

You can also mail your queries at insigniacommodity@gmail.com

Chat Id: mcxsuretips@gmail.com (gtalk), insigniaconsultants@yahoo.com (yahoo)

              (10:30 am to 5:30 pm Indian time, Monday to Friday)

 


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