-- Published: Monday, 27 April 2015 | Print | Disqus
This week is the FOMC meet. This year gold and silver have been distracted by expectations of an interest rate hike (by the Federal Reserve) between June and December. Every now and then some idiotic member of the FOMC keeps on giving some different views as to when there will be an interest rate hike. An interest rate hike will be there this year. There are no second thoughts over the same. But timing and pace of rise will be the key for gold, silver, metals and emerging market currencies apart from the US dollar. Gold and silver have not risen as most of investors are of the belief that there will be a zip-zap-zoom kind of interest rate hike (if and when the interest rate hike starts to happen). I expect gold and silver to soon delink from US interest rate expectations before the end of June.
Gold and silver are about of witness one of the biggest changes in the demand cycle. Retail European demand should start to rise now and zoom in the next few years. Some of the European central banks will become net buyers (from net sellers) from next year. The Chinese as usual continue to be the largest accumulators of gold. Indian gold imports could fall as the government tries to monetize household gold. Europe is going through a demographic change. The rise in radical Islam is on the verge of changing the very foundation in which Europe has been established for centuries. Europe will soon have more mosques than churches. More mosques will imply more demand for physical gold among Europeans as compliance towards Sharia.
There is no silver monetization scheme in India. I expect Indian silver demand to continue to rise in India this year and for the rest of the decade. Ever rising Indian silver demand (apart from industrial use) will be the next catalyst to restart a silver price rise.
In the next three weeks in case gold is able to trade over $1120 the chances of a rise to $1324 will be the very high. In the next three weeks, in case spot silver is able to trade over $13.75, the chances of a rise to $1710 and $1930 will be high. There will be very big one way moves in the next three weeks. Forget consolidation. Range traders will get crushed. A bad trade on the wrong side will ensure that you are busted. I am not asking you to be a bull or a bear. I am just asking you to judge the trend and make your day cheerful (instead of sorrowful).
This is a good time to trade in commodities. Even small phases of high volatility will ensure decent profit. Those who are not trading in commodities should now enter. Crude oil is at an infection point as there will be a $15 one way move anytime. This is the best chance for crude oil to rise this year. I am positive. Buy far dated gold and silver call options. Instead of buying a lottery ticket buy a gold and silver call option after November 2016.
TECHNICAL VIEW
NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT) - current price $57.20
Bullish over $56.30 with $58.10-$58.90 and $60.70 as price target
Bearish below $55.40 with $54.50 and $53.60 as price target
Jobbers buy over: Buy over $57.60 stop loss $56.90 for $58.80-$60.10
Jobbers sell below: Sell below $56.10 stop loss $56.70 for $54.90 and $52.30
- View till end May: Crude oil can rise to $61.50 and $72.10 as long as it trades over $51.20. Sellers will be there if (a) crude oil does not break $61.50 till the end of may or (b) crude oil has a daily close below $53.70 for four consecutive days.
- This week crude oil needs to break and trade over 58.90 for another set of rise.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
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UK session starts around 1:30 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories
US session starts at 6pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
COMEX GOLD – $15-$17
COMEX SILVER: $25-$30
COMEX COPPER: $3
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60
SPOT SILVER: $0.25
SPOT GOLD: $15-$17
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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-- Published: Monday, 27 April 2015 | E-Mail | Print | Source: GoldSeek.com
