The Federal Reserve chairman has indicated of a gradual increase in interest rates. This has already been factored in by the markets. This week’s US GDP number (on Friday) will give us a clear view whether there will be a September interest rate hike. Interest rate factor has already been factored in gold, silver and the US dollar.
Silver (physical) in India is founding more sellers than buyers. This could be one the reasons why silver is not rising. Lack of clear direction for rise has resulted in short term investors avoiding it.
In Europe the focus is on Greece and its bailout issues. However I will now keep my eyes on changes in American-German relations (howsoever minute it may be). There are various reports that big brother pentagon is reducing its outsourcing work with German spy agencies. In the long term I foresee some of the key NATO allies of America giving issue based support (from the current unconditional support). I have always maintained and also now maintain that Europe will be next biggest trigger for gold and silver rally. Europe after a century of World War1 will witness the largest change in political view. Europe after the current decade will become the like pre world war1 which is a divided Europe. Lack of faith among member nations, etc has started the great European divide at a pace which is slower than a snail. Gold and silver will zoom due to Europe apart from the Islamic state factor.
Europe is importing migrants from Africa to meet its demand for cheap labor and also support its ageing population. Most of these migrants are followers of Islam. A recent leaked German intelligence report suggest that Mosques are the biggest source of attracting German youths to the Islamic state and to terror. History has enough evidence that wherever there is a rise in followers of Islam, the masses has suffered (due to anarchy laws) and there is a huge rise in mass unrest. Europe will witness these soon. Gold in the long term will rise. Central banks manipulation of gold prices will very soon die.
(A)Remain on the sidelines.
(B)There will be another wave of sell off only if key technical are breached. However Chinese interest rate cut could prevent big crashes.
COMEX TECHNICAL VIEW
COMEX GOLD JUNE 2015 – current price $1205.00
Bullish over $1203.40 with $1219.90 and $1229 price target
Bearish below $1198.10 with $1193.10 and $1187.60 as price target
Neutral Zone between $1198.10-1203.40
Jobbers aggressive buy over: Buy if gold trades over $1211.10 in UK session or US session stop loss $1207.60 for $1217.60 and $1223 (use strict stop loss)
Jobbers aggressive sell below: There will be another wave of selling if gold trades below $1203 either in UK session or US session
·There is a technical congestion between $1198-$1203 zone. Gold needs to trade over this zone to rise to $1211-$1219
·Selling will be there if (a) Gold trades below $1199 (b) Gold does not break $1214 today.
·Jobbers watch $1207.60 and $1199 all the time.
COMEX SILVER JULY 2015 – current price $1708.00
Bullish over $1700 with $1751 and $1796 as price target
Bearish below $1681 with $1661 and $1637 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $1681 and $1700
Jobbers aggressive buy over: Buy over $1730 stop loss $1715 for $1749 and $1771
Jobbers aggressive sell below: Sell below $1700 stop loss $1712 for $1684 and $1661
·Key weekly support is at $1661. Silver needs to trade over $1661 to prevent further see off.
·Only a consolidated break of $1727 will attract buyers.
·Jobbers watch $1700 and $1727.
COMEX COPPER JULY 2014 – current price $280.15
Bullish over $281.10 with $297.90 -$307.50 as price target
Bearish below $279.00 with $276.60-$273.10 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $279.00 and $281.10
·Copper has a technical congestion between $280-$282.70. It needs to trade over $280 to prevent a fall to $277 and $273
·There will be sellers only if copper trades below $280 either in UK session or US session.
·Remain on the sidelines.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)- current price $59.82
Bullish over $59.70 with $61.30 and $62.70 as price target
Bearish below $59.10 with $58.10 and $57.60 as price target
Jobbers buy over: Buy over $60.10 stop loss $59.40 for $60.90-$62.20
Jobbers sell below: Sell below $59.40 stop loss $59.90 for $58.70-$57.30 (high risk call)
·It seems crude oil has found a new range in the form of $57-$63. Only a break of either of these prices will set a new direction.
·There will be buyers only over $60.40 today.
Disclaimer:Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employeeshave any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
Disclosure:Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
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UK session starts around 1:30 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories
US session starts at 6pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
COMEX GOLD – $15-$17
COMEX SILVER: $25-$30
COMEX COPPER: $3
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60
SPOT SILVER: $0.25
SPOT GOLD: $15-$17
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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