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Asian Metals Market Update

By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Tuesday, 9 June 2015 | Print  | Disqus 

The consolidation phase in gold and silver might continue for a longer period than we expect. Investor sentiment is still bearish for gold and silver. US retail sales on Thursday will give us an idea of what the FOMC meet might comment. Greece and other positive news have failed to impact gold and silver positively. Unless there is a clear cut sign of a short term revival in bullion prices, short sellers will use every rise to sell and investors will stay away from the market.

ISIS, Greece, Ukraine, the whole of Middle East and North Africa region should have been positive for gold. The investor is just obsessed with US economy, the US dollar, and a US interest rate hike. In the long term the market reacts the opposite of the retail investor. Hedge funds have the patience and big money to meet margin calls. Retail investors have neither. This is one of the reasons why most of them make losses in their futures trade. 

ISIS is the nuclearized version of US created and NATO supported previous Taliban. ISIS will only expand eroding nation boundaries globally. The creation of the ISIS by the Americans is basically a part of the Americans to alienate Russia and other natural gas producers and create a long term market for American natural gas. We all know that America does not sell cheap to anyone anything. They loot. This could be one of the biggest long term key factors to restart the gold bull run.

In India some media reports say that gold prices will fall to Rs.20,000 (per ten grams) by next year (from the current price of Rs.27000 per ten grams). I just hope so gold falls as it will give small investors a chance to buy physical gold and gold jewelry. The misery of Indian jewelers should also come to an end next year.


COMEX GOLD AUGUST 2015 – current price $1173.40

Bullish over $1172.90 with $1185.10 and $1199.90 as price target

Bearish below $1166.20 with $1157.20-$1145.00as price target

Neutral Zone between $1166.20-1172.90

Jobbers aggressive buy over: Buy at $1178 stop loss $1169 for $1191 and $1199 (high risk call)   

Jobbers aggressive sell below: We are against selling unless (at lower prices) unless gold falls below $1161.

  • Gold needs to trade over $1166 today to prevent a fall to $1157 and $1146.
  • Short covering/rise will be there be there only if gold trades over $1180 for the whole day.
  • Jobbers watch $1169.90 and $1175.40 all the time.

COMEX SILVER JULY 2015 – current price $1597.00                     

Bullish over $1620 with $1646-$1668 and $1696 as price target

Bearish below $1588 with $1568 and $1535 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $1588 and $1620

Jobbers aggressive buy over: Buy over $1622 stop loss $1608 for $1642-$1655 and $1688 (high risk call)

Jobbers aggressive sell below: There will be another wave of selling only if silver trades below $1588.

  • Silver needs to trade over $1630 for the whole day to attract short covering.
  • In case silver falls in the US session today, then I do not see any hope of a rise before Thursday.
  • Jobbers watch $1596 and $1620.

COMEX COPPER JULY 2014 – current price $270.15

Bullish over $264.30 with $271.70 -$277.40 as price target

Bearish below $261.30 with $256.60-$254.00 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $261.00 and $264.30

  • The hundred percent retracement is at $264.30. As long as copper trades over $264.30, downside risk will be limited.
  • Buy on dips with a stop loss below $261.00

NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)  - current price $58.35                         

Bullish over $57.90 with $59.20 and $61.50 as price target

Bearish below $56.70 with $55.50 and $54.80 as price target

Jobbers buy over: Buy over $59.20 stop loss $58.40 for $61.50

Jobbers sell below: Sell below $56.90 stop loss $57.40 for $57.10-$56.30 (high risk call)

  • Key weekly support is at $56.70. The next wave of selling will be only below $56.70.
  • Crude oil could trade in a wider $54.80-$56.70-$59.20 and $61.50 range this week.
  • Remain on the sidelines.       

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

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