This will be a big week for commodity markets and currency markets. (a) US June nonfarm payrolls (b) Greece drama (c) US Independence day vacation. These can reverse the current direction of the markets and/or create another big sell off in gold, silver and copper. In the next two weeks, I am more than confident that a new trend will be there. It has been easing picking for gold, silver and copper traders. Just sell on any rise and make merry. This strategy will not work this week as there will be two way price movements.
Use higher trailing stop losses. Use any five percent fall (if any) to invest for the short term. Unless there are clear signals of a long term trend reversal, trade/invest for the short term in all metals and energies.
Immediately after the release of the US economic data, there will be an assessment on the US interest rate cycle. You might get foxed and make a bad trade. Wait for initial movement to settle down and then make your trade. Momentum traders can play with the momentum using trailing stop losses.
Gold and silver falling does not mean that one cannot make a profit through trading/investing. The only thing one needs to do is reduce greed and slower and lower returns. Most of the people think that bullion traders are irrational. The general view is that bullion should not be in one’s portfolio. Last week some of the large hedge funds have predicted that US jobs growth will stabilize at fifty thousand per month. Right now investors and the Federal Reserve are obsessed with over one hundred and fifty thousand jobs per month. If US jobs growth stabilizes at fifty thousand per month, then forget interest rate hikes and rest in peace, bullion bears. I am optimistic that 2016 will be the year of gold and silver bulls. However right now, extreme caution is needed by gold and silver investors.
The Saudi form of Islam will cripple the global economy. Saudi’s are just like termites eating the world, ably supported by Obama and all NATO leaders. Even the two main contenders in the US presidential race, Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton have already sold themselves to the Saudi’s and key Islamic leaders. Whoever becomes the next US president, they will be purchased by the oil money of Saudi’s and terror money of Islamic leaders. Gold in the long term has to rise.
Buy lots land, wait for more falls in gold and silver and invest in physical. This has always been my long term call. This will remain my long term call. Short term to medium term, selected stocks are best. Better investment planning would be to invest at least fifty percent of profits from stock markets in land and bullion. This is applicable for all nations including India.
Gold was not invincible. Stock markets will not be invincible. Only creation of more and more money by almost all central banks seems to be death proof. But to remain death proof, a cost has to be incurred. The cost (in the future), will be central banks running out of pure monetary tools (which they have been using after the second world war) and helpless. Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen, Merkel, and the global crop of central bank chiefs and global upcoming key politicians have all born, brought up and lived in a world where changes in pure monetary cycle have led to their desired level of economic growth and jobs creation. Our current decision makers do not have any innovative economic decision making ability among themselves. This lack will do more harm to the global economy in the coming years.
COMEX TECHNICAL VIEW
COMEX GOLD AUGUST 2015 – current price $1181.70
Bullish over $1177.60 with $1189.10 and $1196.80 as price target
Bearish below $1172.30 with $1166.40-$1158.10 as price target
Neutral Zone between $1172.30-1177.60
Jobbers aggressive buy over: Buy at $1157 stop loss $1147 for $1185 or Buy gold if it trades over $1183 after 2pm IST stop loss $1179 for $1188 and $1193
Jobbers aggressive sell below: We are against selling unless (at lower prices) unless gold falls below $1171 either in the UK session or the US session.
Gold needs to trade over $1177 for the whole day to rise to $1196
There will be sellers only below $1174 today.
Jobbers watch $1177/$1185.00 all the time.
COMEX SILVER JULY 2015 – current price $1587.00
Bullish over $1591 with $1633-$1647 and $1665 as price target
Bearish below $1570 with $1547 and $1527 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $1570 and $1591
Jobbers aggressive buy over: buy over $1600 stop loss $1589 for $1615-$1635
Jobbers aggressive sell below: There will be another wave of selling only if silver trades below $1570 either in the UK session or the US session.
Silver needs to trade over $1570 to rise to rise to $1620-$1670
Jobbers watch $1570 and $1600.
Remain on the sidelines.
COMEX COPPER JULY 2014 – current price $263.10
Bullish over $260.00 with $267.10 -$272.30 as price target
Bearish below $257.00 with $253.90-$249.70 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $257.00 and $260.10
Copper can rise to $271 as long as it trades over $257.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)- current price $58.78
Bullish over $5.10 with $61.70 and $63.10 as price target
Bearish below $59.30 with $58.30 and $57.60 as price target
Jobbers buy over: Buy over $59.60 stop loss $58.90 for $60.90-$61.60
Jobbers sell below: Sell below $58.60 stop loss $59.40 for $57.90-$56.80 (high risk call)
Looks mildly bearish but trend reversal can happen anytime.
Jobbers watch $58.10 and $59.10 all the time.
Disclaimer:Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information.Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
Disclosure:Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
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UK session starts around 1:30 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories
US session starts at 6pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
COMEX GOLD – $15-$17
COMEX SILVER: $25-$30
COMEX COPPER: $3
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60
SPOT SILVER: $0.25
SPOT GOLD: $15-$17
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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