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Asian Metals Market Update



By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Tuesday, 21 July 2015 | Print  | Disqus 

COMEX FUTURES REPORT

I will be worried only if gold and silver continue to fall after September’s FOMC meet. The current fall is just a part of summer trading which is backed by lack of demand and a complete breakdown in the technicals. To me one should use gold and silver price falls till September’s FOMC meet to invest for the short term as well as the long term. The quicker the fall, the chances of an equal quick recovery will be high.

When gold prices were trading in the $330-$460 range between the 2001-2004 period, prices had always crashed between the middle of June till the September FOMC meet and thereafter a slow and steady rise after September onwards. I expect this trend to continue this year also. The current gold price phase is just like the 2001-2004 phase. Another similarity was that Asian economies were on the verge of big economic growth. China and other big Asian nations should form a long term growth bottom by the first quarter of 2016 and growth rates thereafter should rise.

No one wants to invest in gold. Gold for now is an untouchable amongst the investment community. Whenever any investment falls excessively and starts to produce negative returns, retail investors do no invest easily. Finding the confidence of retail investment for that investment class is like a snail trying to climb a mountain. Gold, silver and other metals are going through such a phase. Gold bulls need to bear it out for another eleven months.

The Federal Reserve will ensure that gold and silver continue to fall till the first interest rate hike. My experience is that commodity price direction is dependent on Asian demand. Commodities are priced in US dollars. When Asian demand for commodities rise, commodity prices will start another bull phase. The US government controlled hedge funds like Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan etc have the dubious track record of jerking prices of everything which is in big demand in Asia.

Investors are gung ho that the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates. I do not think Yellen will do a Volcker on US interest rates. The next big mover will be the pace of US interest rates hikes and not the actual hike. The Federal Reserve under Yellen will be  extra cautious in raising interest rates. A half a percent interest rate hike in the next three months to four months anytime after September and thereafter a long pause, is expected by me. This long pause in interest rates will itself ensure that gold forms a long term bottom this year.

COMEX TECHNICAL VIEW

COMEX GOLD AUGUST 2015 – current price $1102.60

Bullish over $1121.30 with $1143.00 and $1157.00 as price target

Bearish below $1112.00 with $1098.90-$1073 and $1044.10 as price target

Neutral Zone between $1119.00-1121.30

Jobbers aggressive buy over: Buy on any $20-$25 dip (if any) with a stop loss below $1161.

Jobbers aggressive sell below: Sell below $1098 strict stop loss $1111 for $1173.60 and $1044

  • Key price is $1119. Gold will find sellers on rise as long as it does not break $1119.
  • There will be another wave of selling only if gold trades below $1097 either in the UK session or the US session.
  • Jobbers watch $1197 and $1119.30 all the time.

COMEX SILVER SEPTEMBER 2015 – current price $1472.50

Bullish over $1505 with $1556-$1581-$1607 as price target

Bearish below $1470 with $1428-$1397 and $1330 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $1470 and $1505

Jobbers aggressive buy over: I am against buying unless silver break and trades over $1505

Jobbers aggressive sell below: There will be another wave of selling only if silver trades below $1457 either in the UK session or the US session.

  • Silver needs to trade over $1457 to prevent another sell off to $1428 and $1359
  • There will be short covering only if silver trades over $1500.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)  - current price $50.10

Bullish over $52.20 with $53.60 and $55.30 as price target

Bearish below $51.30 with $49.70 and $48.30 as price target

Jobbers buy over: Buy at $48.10 stop loss $47.30 for $53.10

Jobbers sell below: No call

  • Key support is at $49.20. Crude oil needs to trade over $49.20 to prevent another big sell off.
  • Only a consolidated break of $52.20 will attract short covering.

COMEX COPPER SEPTEMBER 2014 – current price $249.20

Bullish over $253.00 with $263.30 -$269.10 as price target

Bearish below $249.00 with $243.80-$239.60 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $249.00 and $253.002

  • Copper needs to trade over $253 too rise to $258-$263
  • There will be another wave of selling if copper trades below $247 to $243-$237 and $221.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

Trade without emotions

"Print this report only if absolutely necessary. Save Paper. Save Trees."

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT

Follow us on Twitter @insigniaconsul1

UK session starts around 1:30 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories

US session starts at 6pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)

PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS

PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.

APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT

COMEX GOLD – $15-$17

COMEX SILVER: $25-$30

COMEX COPPER: $3

NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60

SPOT SILVER: $0.25

SPOT GOLD: $15-$17

THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT

Customer care: 9311139549

You can also mail your queries at insigniacommodity@gmail.com

Chat Id: mcxsuretips@gmail.com (gtalk), insigniaconsultants@yahoo.com (yahoo)

              (10:30 am to 5:30 pm Indian time, Monday to Friday)


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 -- Published: Tuesday, 21 July 2015 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

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