-- Published: Monday, 27 July 2015 | Print | Disqus
The next two weeks, the following events will affect commodities and currency markets in a big way:
1) FOMC meet
2) US July nonfarm payrolls.
3) The direction of the US dollar.
4) Direction of energy prices.
5) Asian demand for gold and silver.
Each of the above events will affect gold, silver, copper and currency markets in a big way. The next six weeks is the last week of US summer trading and European summer trading period. The next four weeks is also a period when jewelers in Asia will stock up physical gold and silver for the forthcoming demand.
Gold, silver and copper are oversold. They can rise anytime. At lower prices gold prices will see another wave of sell off only if it trades below $1027. At lower prices silver prices will see another wave of sell off only if it trades below $1397. There can be sharp pullback rallies (while maintaining the overall bearish trend) as long as gold and silver trade over these prices.
Another positive side, from the currency markets is if that the Japanese Yen has not yet broken 126.50 against the US dollar. The Japanese Yen can fall to 117 and below as long as it trades below 126.50. A stronger Yen against the US dollar is always positive for gold and silver. September yen repatriations should also result in higher gold and silver prices.
Everyone in India, is now looking for a trend reversal to buy physical gold and silver. In case gold and silver rise this week, then there will be a huge surge in demand this week. Premiums on physical gold and silver will zoom in India, if prices stabilize and/or rise this week.
A Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September and December has already been factored in by the markets. The key is now the pace of interest rate hike till the first quarter of next quarter and not the hike.
TODAY
Comex gold August futures are expiring this week. There should be profit booking on short positions. As long as Indian gold prices trade over Rs.23700 per ten grams, downside risk will be limited.
COMEX TECHNICAL VIEW
COMEX GOLD AUGUST 2015 – current price $1097.20
Bullish over $1073.10 with $1114.00 and $1131.00 as price target
Bearish below $1056.00 with $1044.10 and $1027.30 as price target
Neutral Zone between $1056.00-1073.10
Jobbers aggressive buy over: Buy on any $15-$20 dip (if any) with a stop loss below $1159 – If the stop loss of $1159 is hit then sell for $1144 an $1119 OR Buy gold over $1104 stop loss $1096 for $1114 and $1131
Jobbers aggressive sell below: Selling only if gold trades below $1069 today.
- The first phase of a correction in gold is over. The next wave of fall will be there only below $1044.
- The region between $1044 and $1073 is an anything can happen zone.
- We prefer a buy on sharp dips strategy with a stop loss below $1030 till next week.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
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UK session starts around 1:30 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories
US session starts at 6pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
COMEX GOLD – $15-$17
COMEX SILVER: $25-$30
COMEX COPPER: $3
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60
SPOT SILVER: $0.25
SPOT GOLD: $15-$17
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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-- Published: Monday, 27 July 2015 | E-Mail | Print | Source: GoldSeek.com
