-- Published: Thursday, 6 August 2015 | Print | Disqus
COMEX FUTURES REPORT
US July private ADP numbers have been below expectations. However a sharp rise in the ISM services numbers resulted in the downfall for metals and energies. Momentum is bearish for gold, copper, crude and silver. Nobody wants to buy in the futures market. The chances are very high for a September interest rate hike. The only reason not to raise interest rates in September will be very low inflation.
Retail investors are of the view that the USA will return to interest rate normalcy quicker than expected. Bank of England interest rate hikes will be quicker than the Federal Reserve. Massive interest rate hikes or expectation of a massive interest rate hike in an election year could be suicidal for the presidential candidates whose party is in power. Historically it has never been easy for nations to move away from zero interest rate policy.
Silver will see big one way moves anytime. It needs to fall below $1397 or break and trade over $1515 for another set of big one way moves.
The big question in August will be whether gold falls below $1027 for a sustained period of time. Silver trades below $1397 for a sustained period of time. With a $40 fall in silver prices, the premiums on physical silver will rise sharply due to higher Asian demand.
Silver demand in India will be high for the rest of the year. In India, the government plans a gold monetization scheme. But there is no silver monetization scheme. The growing trend among urban masses is to wear more silver jewelry. Silver demand in India will rise as long as prices trade below Rs.38000 per kilogram.
Remain on the sidelines.
COMEX TECHNICAL VIEW
COMEX GOLD DECEMBER 2015 – current price $1083.70
Bullish over $1091.10 with $1114.00 and $1131.00 as price target
Bearish below $1083.00 with $1069.10 and $1044.30 as price target
Neutral Zone between $1083.00-1091.10
Jobbers aggressive buy over: Buy at $1057 stop loss $1027
Jobbers aggressive sell below: Selling only if gold does not break $1105 in the US session.
- Gold needs to fall below $1078 or break and trade over $1100 for direction.
- The big sell off will be there in case gold does not break and trade over $1109 by Monday.
- Remain on the sidelines today.
COMEX SILVER SEPTEMBER 2015 – current price $1464.90
Bullish over $1440 with $1496-$1515-$1536-$1596 as price target
Bearish below $1397 with $1377-$1333 and $1275 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $1397 and $1440
Jobbers aggressive buy over: Buy at $1397 stop loss $1374 for $1515 – if the stop loss of $1374 is hit then sell for $1275 and $1170 – OR Buy silver over $1474 stop loss $1463 for $1492 and $1515
Jobbers aggressive sell below: Sell if silver trades below $1437 either in the UK session or the US session stop loss $145
- There is a technical congestion between $1427-$1447. Silver needs to trade over this zone to prevent another big sell off.
- Remain on the sidelines.
- Jobbers watch $1447 and $1471 all the time.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT) - current price $45.22
Bullish over $46.00 with $49.70 and $54.10 as price target
Bearish below $43.20 with $41.10 and $37.10 as price target
Jobbers buy over: Buy at $41.00 stop loss $38.70
Jobbers sell below: Risky traders sell below $44.90 stop loss $45.70 for $43.70 and $41.10
- Crude oil is bearish. There will be another wave of selling below $45.00 with $43.70 and $39.80 as key support.
- Jobbers watch $45.10 and $47.40.
COMEX COPPER SEPTEMBER 2014 – current price $236.75
Bullish over $236.00 with $242.10 -$248.80 as price target
Bearish below $227.00 with $221.00-$207.60 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $227.00 and $236.00
- Copper need to trade over $232 to rise to $241 and $248.
- There will be another big wave of selling if copper trades below $227 either in the UK session or the US session.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
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UK session starts around 1:30 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories
US session starts at 6pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
COMEX GOLD – $15-$17
COMEX SILVER: $25-$30
COMEX COPPER: $3
NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60
SPOT SILVER: $0.25
SPOT GOLD: $15-$17
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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-- Published: Thursday, 6 August 2015 | E-Mail | Print | Source: GoldSeek.com