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Asian Metals Market Update



By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Monday, 24 August 2015 | Print  | Disqus 

COMEX FUTURES REPORT

The Asian stock rout will affect silver, crude oil and base metals more than gold. Silver will be unable to rise if industrial metals get crushed under the stock market. With every fall, volatility will rise. Indians who did not purchase gold (at lower prices) will be using dips to buy more. Silver has not risen by much. Indian demand for silver over the next two weeks will be on the higher side.

Indian gold prices have traded between Rs.25500-Rs.28500 for most of the year. MCX prices were below Rs.25500 (on a daily closing basis) for just nineteen days. The retail investor did not purchase gold due to the media hype that prices will fall to Rs.23000 and below. MCX gold prices are now back over Rs.27000. Retail buyers of gold jewelry now think that they have missed out on the rise and that they will be using sharp falls to buy more jewelry. Indian gold prices should trade in Rs.25000-Rs.29000. A big crash in Indian gold prices will come only if prices fall below Rs.23700 and remain below Rs.23700 for at least ten consecutive days. (gold prices=Rs/ten grams).

The American summer trading will come to an end this week. I have been vindicated. I was bullish on gold and silver. Our clients in India used the fall in gold and silver prices to invest in physical. Jewelers brothers were advised to use the fall to increase their inventory. I will be worried only if gold and silver fall after September’s FOMC meet. This is something which I have written in my earlier reports after June. I continue to maintain this stance.

If gold and silver rise after the September FOMC meet and till early December, then I see a lot of commonality between 2004 and now. In 2004 gold prices start a bull run from $380 to $735 correct once and then rise to $1930 in around seven years time. 2004 was the year when gold really started to rise. If gold and silver rise till early December then there will be new highs.

Traders will start taking positions for next week’s US August nonfarm payrolls. Silver and copper futures will see roll over for December. Silver and copper will see more action now than gold and silver.

COMEX TECHNICAL VIEW

COMEX GOLD DECEMBER 2015 – current price $1160.40

Bullish over $1143.70 with $1173.60 and $1189.30 as price target

Bearish below $1138.10 with $1129.60 and $1114.10 as price target

Neutral Zone between $1138.10-$1143.70

Jobbers aggressive buy over: Buy over $1171 strict stop loss $1163.00 for $1189.10 and $1199

Jobbers sell below: Selling only if gold trades below $1159 either in the UK session or the US session stop loss $1167 for $1149-$1144 and $1129

  • Gold needs to trade over $1159 for the whole day to rise to $1173-$1199
  • Initial support is at $1159.00 with $1143 as the key support.
  • There will be sellers if gold trades below $1159

COMEX SILVER SEPTEMBER 2015 – current price $1522.50

Bullish over $1507 with $1538-$1569-1581 and $1635 as price target

Bearish below $1478 with $1426-$1362 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $1478 and $1507

Jobbers aggressive buy over: Buy if and only if silver trades over $1538 stop loss $1519 for $1557 and $1588

Jobbers sell below: Selling silver if it trades below $1514 either in the UK session or the US session stop loss $1531 for $1498-$1478 and $1451.

  • Silver can fall first and then rise. Key support is at $1519.
  • Silver needs to trade over $1519 for the whole day to prevent another big sell off.
  • Jobbers watch $1519 and $1538 all the time.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)  - current price $39.61

Bullish over $42.00 with $43.60 and $45.40 as price target

Bearish below $40.70 with $38.70-$36.90 and $35.62 as price target

Jobbers buy over: Buy at $35.10 stop loss $33.70

Jobbers sell below: Risky traders sell below $38.70 stop loss $39.70 for $35.70

  • There is a technical congestion between $33.60-$35.60-$36.90. Crude oil needs to trade over this zone till September to prevent another sell off.
  • Momentum is bearish for crude oil.
  • Only a break of $41.50 will resume the weekly bullish zone.

COMEX COPPER SEPTEMBER 2014 – current price $226.25

Bullish over $231.10 with $236.80 -$242.30 as price target

Bearish below $226.30 with $223.10-$218.80 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $226.30 and $231.10

  • Key support is at $223. Copper needs to trade over $223 today to prevent another sell off.
  • There will be another big sell off if copper trades below $223 either in the UK session or the US session.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

Trade without emotions

"Print this report only if absolutely necessary. Save Paper. Save Trees."

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT

Follow us on Twitter @insigniaconsul1

UK session starts around 1:30 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories

US session starts at 6pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)

PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS

PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.

APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT

COMEX GOLD – $15-$17

COMEX SILVER: $25-$30

COMEX COPPER: $3

NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60

SPOT SILVER: $0.25

SPOT GOLD: $15-$17

THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT

Customer care: 9311139549

You can also mail your queries at insigniacommodity@gmail.com

Chat Id: mcxsuretips@gmail.com (gtalk), insigniaconsultants@yahoo.com (yahoo)

              (10:30 am to 5:30 pm Indian time, Monday to Friday)


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 -- Published: Monday, 24 August 2015 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

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Sita Ram Bazar, New Delhi-110006. India.
Ph: [O] 91-11-30919880 [M] 09811139549
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