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Asian Metals Market Update



By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Thursday, 3 September 2015 | Print  | Disqus 

COMEX FUTURES REPORT

The big guess answer for everyone is when an interest rate hike will be there by the Federal Reserve. FOMC minutes are positive that inflation will rise which should result in an interest rate hike. US economic data releases shows sustained strength.

By next week either gold breaks and trades over $1174 or it will fall to $1108 and $1086 first and then rise. Asian demand for gold and silver will rise with the passing of every week. Premiums on physical gold and silver will rise with the passing of each week.

Indian gold imports

Indian gold imports in the first eight months of the calendar year are estimated to be 40% higher at 587 tonnes year-on-year. 2015 is likely to close with over 1000 tonnes imports. The import bill for the first 8 months is estimated at $23 billion, up 42% year on year. Imports in the month of August are estimated between 85-100 tonne compared to 67 tonne in August, 2014, a rise of around 50%. In July this year, imports were 97 tonne. If the final figure for August comes near to 100 tones as estimated, it will be perhaps the highest August import. In August 2011 the import was 91.8 tones.

Our view: (A) Indian gold imports should prevent gold prices from a big fall till November. From December 2015 to February 2016, Indian gold imports should fall. It is this period’s price trend which will be crucial for next year. (B) Chinese demand for gold will be crucial from the middle of January 2016 to the middle of March 2016 due to the Chinese New Year. If Chinese gold demand beats street expectations, then gold will rise to $1430-$1500 by May 2016.

I am not hyper bullish in gold in the short term. Buyers hold on to long positions with a stop loss below $1088. Fresh buying only if gold trades over $1150 after the release of tomorrow’s US August nonfarm payrolls with a stop loss below $1107.

COMEX TECHNICAL VIEW

COMEX GOLD DECEMBER 2015 – current price $1132.80

Bullish over $1136.00 with $1143.30-$1149 and $1164.10 as price target

Bearish below $1121.10 with $1114.30-$1109.60 and $1103.90 as price target

Neutral Zone between $1121.00-$1136.00

Jobbers aggressive buy over: Buy over $1136 strict stop loss $1131 for $1141.00 and $1147-$1153

Jobbers sell below: Selling only if gold trades below $1129 either in the UK session or the US session stop loss $1131.90 for $1125.90-$1123.10 and $1119

  • Failure to break $1153 by tomorrow will result in a fall to $1114 and $1094.60.
  • Key price to watch is $1136.60
  • Remain on the sidelines.

COMEX SILVER DECEMBER 2015 – current price $1471.50

Bullish over $1423 with $1488-$1527 and $1553 as price target

Bearish below $1396 with $1379-$1354 and $1305 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $1396 and $1423

Jobbers aggressive buy over: Buy if and only if silver trades over $1470 stop loss $1457 for $1488-$1510 and $1536

Jobbers sell below: Selling silver if it trades below $1410 either in the UK session or the US session stop loss $1433 for $1398-$1367 and $1343.

  • Silver needs to trade over $1447 rise to $1527 and $1579
  • Use the fall in silver (if any) till next week, to invest for the short term.
  • There will be another big wave of rise if silver trades over $1480.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)  - current price $46.30

Bullish over $44.50 with $47.40 and $49.80 as price target

Bearish below $43.30 with $42.30 and $40.60 as price target

Jobbers buy over: buy over $47.10 stop loss $45.90 for $49.70 and $53.00

Jobbers sell below: Risky traders sell below $44.70 stop loss $45.60 for $43.20-$42.20 and $40.70.

  • For the rest of the month, I am against selling crude oil unless it falls below $42.00.
  • Initial support is at $45.10
  • A daily close over $44.00 today and tomorrow should result in $53.00-$55.00 in the next two weeks.

COMEX COPPER DECEMBER 2015 – current price $233.35

Bullish over $231.10 with $236.80 -$242.30 as price target

Bearish below $226.30 with $223.10-$218.80 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $226.30 and $231.10

  • Copper can rise to $237 and $253 as long as it trades over the $226-$228 zone.
  • Use sharp dips in copper to invest for the short term with a stop loss below $219.
  • Jobbers watch $227 and $233 all the time.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

Trade without emotions

"Print this report only if absolutely necessary. Save Paper. Save Trees."

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT

Follow us on Twitter @insigniaconsul1

UK session starts around 1:30 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories

US session starts at 6pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)

PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS

PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.

APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT

COMEX GOLD – $15-$17

COMEX SILVER: $25-$30

COMEX COPPER: $3

NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60

SPOT SILVER: $0.25

SPOT GOLD: $15-$17

THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT

Customer care: 9311139549

You can also mail your queries at insigniacommodity@gmail.com

Chat Id: mcxsuretips@gmail.com (gtalk), insigniaconsultants@yahoo.com (yahoo)

              (10:30 am to 5:30 pm Indian time, Monday to Friday)


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 -- Published: Thursday, 3 September 2015 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

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Sita Ram Bazar, New Delhi-110006. India.
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