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By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Friday, 16 October 2015 | Print  | Disqus 

I am against buying at current prices in gold and silver unless there is clear evidence of sustainability of the rise. A lot has been said that gold and silver may have formed a long term bottom. But a certain section of the investment community is still not convinced over the rise. There were long term bulls like myself who had advised clients to use dips till August to invest for the long term and have advised still to hold onto to their long positions.

Contrarily there are short term bearish hawks who are using the current prices in gold prices to go short. Gold and silver both need to rise next week also to beat the bearish hawks. Selected stocks which offer much better return than gold still gives competition to gold. The Chinese syndrome which has had a negative effect on industrial metals and silver should completely fade out by January 2016. Base metals traders should buy far dated call options and/or use the fall (if any) till January 2016 to invest for next year October.

Interest rate decisions by central banks of NATO nations are more politically motivated than economic or for benefit of masses. Big risk would come in case the political fraternity in the USA decides to call for an interest rates hike in an October meeting. This is the only surprise risk for gold and silver bulls and US dollar bears.

Gold goes through a very crucial phase for the next seven days. It needs to break and trade over $1191-$1203-$1225 zone for another wave of rise. In case gold does not break $1191-$1203-$1225 zone by next Friday, then it will fall to $1143 and $1119 and then rise.

Silver is no doubt bullish. Big quick rise in seen in phases. Silver will see sell stop losses getting triggered only if it trades over $1643. On the lower side there is massive demand on any two percent fall. For the next one month, forget china issues and invest in silver. Silver future investors one needs to use a trailing stop loss below $1360 for short term investment. Physical silver investors can buy at current prices in small amounts and increase the buying on any $150-$175 fall (if any).

COMEX TECHNICAL VIEW

COMEX GOLD DECEMBER 2015 – current price $1181.90

Bullish over $1179.10 with $1191.10-$1203 and $1225 as price target

Bearish below $1173.70 with $1157.60  and $1139.90 as price target

Neutral Zone between $1173.70.10-$1167910

Jobbers aggressive buy over: Buy at $1144-$1145 stop loss $1147 for $1205-$1224-$124

Jobbers sell below: Sell below $1180 strict stop loss $1193.70 for $1163.90 and $1149.90

  • I am against buying at current prices unless gold breaks and trades over $1196.
  • Initial support is at $1169.80 with $1149.30 as the key support till Monday.
  • A daily close over $1170 today will be bullish for gold for next week.

COMEX SILVER DECEMBER 2015 – current price $1611.50

Bullish over $1582 with $1637 - $1675.50 and $1810 as price target

Bearish below $1555 with $1537-$1517 and $1484 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $1555 and $1582

Jobbers aggressive buy over: Buy at $1560 stop loss $1535 for $1676-$1710 or buy if silver trades over $1614 stop loss $1598 for 1637 and $1675

Jobbers sell below: Selling silver if it trades below $1595 either in the UK session or the US session stop loss $1607 for $1577-1553-$1537

  • Silver needs to trade over $1615 for the whole day to rise to $1637 and $1675
  • Initial support is at $1589 with $1555 as the key support.
  • We prefer a buy on any $70-$80 fall (if any) with a stop loss below $1470 for next week

NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)  - current price $46.98

Bullish over $46.10 with $48.70-$50.10 and $52.30 as price target

Bearish below $45.70 with $44.90 and $43.30 as price target

Jobbers buy over: Buy over $47.00 stop loss $46.40 for $48.40 and $50.20

Jobbers sell below: Selling only if crude oil trades below $46.30 stop loss $47.10 for $45.30 and $44.10

  • Crude oil needs to trade over $45.40 to rise to $49.90
  • There will be buyers on dips as long as crude oil trades over $43.00

COMEX COPPER DECEMBER 2015 – current price $242.60

Bullish over $237.10 with $245.30 and $252.10 as price target

Bearish below $234.10 with $231.60-$227.60 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $234.10 and $237.10

  • Copper needs to trade over $237.70 today to rise to $247.70 and $252.10.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

Trade without emotions

"Print this report only if absolutely necessary. Save Paper. Save Trees."

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT

Follow us on Twitter @insigniaconsul1

UK session starts around 1:30 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories

US session starts at 6pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)

PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS

PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.

APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN US DOLLARS ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT

COMEX GOLD – $15-$17

COMEX SILVER: $25-$30

COMEX COPPER: $3

NYMEX CRUDE OIL: $0.60

SPOT SILVER: $0.25

SPOT GOLD: $15-$17

THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT

Customer care: 9311139549

You can also mail your queries at insigniacommodity@gmail.com

Chat Id: mcxsuretips@gmail.com (gtalk), insigniaconsultants@yahoo.com (yahoo)

              (10:30 am to 5:30 pm Indian time, Monday to Friday)

 


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