-- Published: Monday, 30 November 2015 | Print | Disqus
COMEX FUTURES REPORT – trade prepare for December FOMC.
Gold has fallen so far this year. A US interest rate hike has been the sole factor for gold’s demise this year. The Federal Reserve will in almost all certainty raise interest rates in December. Investment demand for gold has been negative this year. In the first half of 2016, the pace of US interest rate hikes will be one of the main factors to watch. The pace of US interest rate hikes will be dictated by (a) Monthly employment numbers (b) Direction of US economy. In 2016 Middle East risk and geopolitical risk have an impact only if they lead to a war between NATO and Russia. The progress of the Islamic state will not have any impact on currency markets and commodity markets as we know that they are supported by NATO.
In the second half of 2016, the great US election show will affect metals markets and currency markets. Skeptics say that the Chinese economy will see another flop year in 2016. A flop Chinese economy will also be a flop show for industrial metals, silver and gold. I have a different view. The measures taken by the Chinese government to restart higher economic growth this year will start bearing fruit next year. Industrial metals and silver and gold will see a long term bottom by June 2016. However it will be difficult to judge the short term pace of rise and pace of fall in metals and energies for the next twelve months.
A new invention suggests that gold could be used to generate solar electricity. Transparent glass windows in the future will be using gold to generate solar electricity. These gold based transparent glass windows will change the global concrete jungle. In the very long term gold could become an inert metal if new uses are made available to the common man. In the short term investors are made to think that gold is a rotten egg investment.
In December gold needs to trade over $1010 to prevent a big sell off. In December silver needs to trade over $1272 to prevent a big sell off.
Bottom fishers will be very active in commodity markets. They will try to look for a bottom to invest. I expect the Federal Reserve to have a hawkish tone (after December’s interest rate hike) on US interest rate direction.
COMEX TECHNICAL VIEW
COMEX GOLD FEBRUARY 2016 – current price $1052.80
Bullish over $1065.90 with $1071-$1079.30 and $1086.90 as price target
Bearish below $1058.10 with $1049.10-$1044.90 and $1033.60 as price target
Neutral Zone between $1058.10-$1065.90
Jobbers aggressive buy over: Buy at $1031-$1033 stop loss $1019 for $1060 and $1079
Jobbers sell below: Sell if and only if gold trades below $1044 stop loss $1049.10 for $1037.10-$1029.90
- Key long term support is at $1044. Gold needs to trade over $1044 to prevent another wave of selling to $1033 and $1010.
- Oversold conditions exist. There can be trend reversal anytime.
- The region between $1033 and $1044 is an anything can happen zone.
- There will be short covering only if gold manages to trade over $1065.
COMEX SILVER MARCH 2016 – current price $1400.50
Bullish over $1372 with $1413-$1429-$1456-$1492 as price target
Bearish below $1355 with $1316 and $1272 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $1355 and $1372
Jobbers aggressive buy over: Buy at $1344 stop loss $1322 for $1413-$1455
Jobbers sell below: Jobbers remain on the sell side as long as silver trades below $1413.
- Key weekly support is at $1355 with $1470 as the key weekly resistance.
- Big one way moves only either on a break of $1470 or on a fall below $1355
- Right now silver is in a neutral zone to bearish zone.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT) - current price $41.84
Bullish over $40.20 with $44.70-$47.60 as price target
Bearish below $38.90 with $37.70 and $36.10 as price target
Jobbers buy over: Buy at $39.60 stop loss $38.60 for $43.50-$44.50
Jobbers sell below: Selling only if crude oil trades below $41.40 stop loss $42.20 for $40.60 and $39.80
- Failure to break $46 by next week will result in a fall to $38 and $34 first and then another wave of rise.
- Jobbers watch $39.90 and $42.30.
COMEX COPPER MARCH 2016 – current price $204.80
Bullish over $203.10 with $208.60 and $213.60 as price target
Bearish below $199.00 with $196.60-$189.60 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $199.00 and $203.10
- Key monthly support is at $189.60. Copper needs to trade over $189.60 in December to rise to $220 and $243.80.
- Big crash in copper below $189.60. However momentum for copper is bearish.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
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-- Published: Monday, 30 November 2015 | E-Mail | Print | Source: GoldSeek.com