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Asian Metals Market Update



By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Thursday, 17 December 2015 | Print  | Disqus 

COMEX FUTURES REPORT

The interest rate rise by the Federal Reserve was slightly larger than expected. The federal funds rate was raised to 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent. There will be more interest rate hike over the next one year. It will still be difficult to comment on the pace of interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. In my view inflation will be the key. Interest rate will continued to be raised at a moderate pace as long as inflation does not rise. If inflation overshoots the interest rate hikes could be jeopardized.

Just trade in the technical for the rest of the year. Momentum is bearish for gold, silver, copper and crude oil. There are more bearish factors than bullish factors. In the short term, unless big demand comes up, every sharp rise will be met by sellers.

Geopolitical risk has unaffected gold and silver prices. “Escalate” is the only word to describe the situation in Middle East. Saudi Arabia along with Turkey are using the oil money to expand their territories in the Middle East (by attacking Yemen and other nations in the region). Saudi Arabia and Turkey are the promoters of the so called “Islamic State”. Migrants will cause more lawlessness in Europe next year. Migrants in the long term (tem years and over) will convert Europe into another Pakistan. In 2016 geopolitical risk will have a serious decision making impact on the mindset of investors. I expect gold and silver to be positively affected by the geopolitical risk.

Failure of gold to break past $1109 by the second week of January will result in a fall to $975 and $937 first. Failure of silver to break past $1515 by the second week of January will result in a fall to $1276 and $1187 first. Nymex crude oil needs to trade over $31 to avert another big crash.

COMEX TECHNICAL VIEW

COMEX GOLD FEBRUARY 2016 – current price $1066.70

Bullish over $1063.00 with $$1076-1081-$1088.20 as price target

Bearish below $1056.60 with $1050.70-$1043.75-$1024.00 as price target

Neutral Zone between $1056.00-$1063.00

Jobbers aggressive buy over: I am against buying unless gold trades over $1070.60 either in UK session or US session strict stop loss $1072.10 for $1077 and $1088

Jobbers sell below: Sell if and only if gold trades below $1063.10 stop loss $1069.10 for $1054.10-$1049.90 and $1036.10 (high risk call)

  • There will be sellers on rise as long as gold does not break $1070-$1088 zone.
  • Gold needs to trade over $1057 today to prevent another wave of sell off.
  • Initial support is at $1058.30 with $1041.10 as the key support till tomorrow.

COMEX SILVER MARCH 2016 – current price $1404.55

Bullish over $1411 with $1421-$1437- $1456-$1494 as price target

Bearish below $1388 with 1364-$1338 and $1298 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $1388 and $1311

Jobbers aggressive buy over: Buy at $1311 stop loss $1396 for $1376-$1414 or buy over $1407 stop loss $1398 for $1454.

Jobbers sell below: High risk traders sell silver below $1388 stop loss $1403 for $1364.00 and $1327.

  • Silver needs to trade over $1392 to rise to $1437 and $1475.
  • There will be sellers if (a) silver does not break $1437 today (b) silver trades below $1388 either in UK session or US session.
  • Initial support is at $1388 with $1364 as the key support.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)  - current price $35.44

Bullish over $37.10 with $40.70-$42.20-$44.90 as price target

Bearish below $35.50 with $33.80-$32.10 as price target

Jobbers buy over: Buy at $32.20 stop loss $31.30 for $38.10 and $40.20

Jobbers sell below: Selling only if crude oil trades below $35.20 stop loss $35.90 for $34.20 and $32.70

  • Crude oil needs to trade over $35.10 to prevent another sell off.
  • Initial support is at $35.10. Initial resistance is at $37.40

COMEX COPPER MARCH 2016 – current price $206.80

Bullish over $208.70 with $216.80 and $221.90 as price target

Bearish below $204.10 with $199.10-$195.80 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $204.10 and $208.70

  • Copper needs to trade over $203 till Monday to rise to $212 and $217
  • There will be sellers if copper trades below $203 either in UK session or US session or copper does not break $214 by Monday.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

Trade without emotions

"Print this report only if absolutely necessary. Save Paper. Save Trees."

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT

Follow us on Twitter @insigniaconsul1

UK session starts around 2:30 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories

US session starts at 7pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)

PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS

PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.

THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT

Customer care: 9311139549

You can also mail your queries at insigniacommodity@gmail.com

Chat Id: mcxsuretips@gmail.com (gtalk), insigniaconsultants@yahoo.com (yahoo)

              (10:30 am to 5:30 pm Indian time, Monday to Friday)

 


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 -- Published: Thursday, 17 December 2015 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

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