-- Published: Monday, 4 January 2016 | Print | Disqus
COMEX FUTURES REPORT – Welcome back
It is now back to some serious trading. Traders will be once again looking forward to US employment numbers this week and then decide on March interest rate hike. The effect of interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve will be felt in the month of February and beyond. Every year something unexpected happens. I will be closely watching the developments in Eastern Europe, Middle east and North Africa and look for clues on how they will impact metals and energies market. Geopolitical risk has failed to impact metals and energy markets last year. One needs to keep a close watch on these regions.
The pace of interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve will be the key. (A) Gold and silver will see another big wave of crash if and only if there is any indication that US economy will continue to hire 190,000 and more nonfarm jobs every month. (B) Gold and silver will zoom if US economy hires 140,000 and below nonfarm jobs (C) The region between 140,000 and 190,000 jobs is a neutral zone.
The European Union (EU) is imposing migrants to its member nations. The message given by key EU members is clear, nations will loose their sovereignty as soon as they become member of EU. The democratically elected government in member EU nations have to be puppets of EU. It does not matter which political party leader (in any nation) rules. They have to serve EU their master or go. Greece is the best example. The European Union’s bully will only create a hollow and divided Europe. A divided Europe is good for global economy as well as gold and silver. Italy does not want trade sanctions on Russia as it affects their economy most. However Italy has to follow the dictates of the EU.
In January, just trade with the immediate term in mind. Do not think of the medium term to long term. There is no doubt that gold and silver will zoom in the long term. How in the immediate term, there will be very high volatility. Gold, silver, copper and crude oil need to trade over their one hundred day moving average (100 day MA) of $1108, $1477, $224.10 and $42.88 to start another big bull run. As long as gold, silver, copper and crude oil trade below 100 day MA, the over trend is bearish, but bottom fishers will be watching like a hawk.
I am of the belief that the Chinese economy will form a long term bottom this year. Industrial metals will also form a long term bottom this year. The rise of industrial metals will be similar to being a junk car being restarted. It will take time. More and more manufacturing jobs, globally are being replaced by robots. Increased use of robots will imply reduced globalization. Nations will just buy raw materials and manufacture in their nation. US will manufacture more and import less from China, Bangladesh or India. Industrial metals will zoom. China or South Africa will not sell its raw material to USA at throw away prices.
Lastly, developed nations are resorting to more and more protectionism and also behaving like closed economies. But they are asking the rest of the world for easy entry and exit for the large corporations. These developments is another reason for me to look for a bottom to invest for the long term.
COMEX GOLD FEBRUARY 2016 – current price $1063.00
Bullish over $1062.20 with $1071.20-$1078.50-$1086.30 as price target
Bearish below $1056.10 with $1051.50-$1046.75 and $1042.50 as price target
Neutral Zone between $1056.10-$1062.20
Jobbers aggressive buy over: Buy on any $15-$20 dip (if any) with a stop loss below $1036 or buy at $1052 stop loss $1045.80 for $1071-$1077 and $1086
Jobbers sell below: Sell only if gold trades below $1062 either in UK session or US session stop loss $1067.10 for $1056.10 and $1049.70.
- There is a technical congestion between $1067 and $1072. Gold needs to break and trade over this zone for another wave of rise to $1086 and $1094.
- Remain on the sidelines today. Jobbers watch $1056 and $1064 all the time.
COMEX SILVER MARCH 2016 – current price $1386.50
Bullish over $1364 with $1408- $1435-$1460 as price target
Bearish below $1354 with 1346-$1328 and $1312 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $1364 and $1354
Jobbers aggressive buy over: Buy at $1330 stop loss $1313 for $1408-$1436 or buy over $1396 stop loss $1382 for $1414 and $1436.
Jobbers sell below: sell silver below $1364 stop loss $1376 for $1346.00 and $1325.
- There will be another wave of selling only if silver trades below $1364 either in UK session or US session.
- Overall trend is neutral zone.
- Big rise only if silver manages to trade over $1400.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT) - current price $37.80
Bullish over $36.10 with $39.10-$40.20-$42.20 as price target
Bearish below $33.60 with $32.10-$30.90 as price target
Jobbers buy over: Buy at $35.40 stop loss $34.90 for $38.20 and $40.20 or buy over $38.00 stop loss $38.30 for $39.10 and $40.90
Jobbers sell below: Sell below $37.10 stop loss $37.70 for $36.20 and $34.90.
- Key resistance is at $38.10. A consolidated break of $38.20 will result in $41.10 and $42.60.
- There will be buyers on dips as long as crude oil trades over $33.00-$34.00 zone.
- Remain on the sidelines and watch $38.10 all the time.
COMEX COPPER MARCH 2016 – current price $210.10
Bullish over $207.90 with $215.20 and $220.80 as price target
Bearish below $204.10 with $200.50 and $196.60 as price target
Neutral Zone between: $204.10 and $207.90
- Copper needs to trade over $209 today to rise to $215 and $221
- There will be sellers if copper trades below $209 either in UK session or US session today.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
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-- Published: Monday, 4 January 2016 | E-Mail | Print | Source: GoldSeek.com