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Asian Metals Market Update

By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Friday, 15 January 2016 | Print  | Disqus 


Gold and silver will break free from the recent consolidation phase and form a new range anytime. US December retail sale numbers will not affect bullion prices in a big way. If silver trades below $1360 then it will test two hundred month moving average of $1320. There is still hope for silver bulls as long as it trades over $1320. It will hopeless for silver it if trades below $1320 for a few days.


Indian physical silver price has a key long term support of Rs.32,000 per kilogram. As long as silver trades over Rs.32000 per kilogram there is every possibility of a rise to Rs.36000 per kilogram and Rs.42000 per kilogram in the coming months. Big crash in silver only if it falls below Rs.32000 per kilogram.


Indian physical gold has a key long term support at Rs.23700 per ten grams and Rs.28700 per ten grams as ley long term resistance. There is lot of speculation that global gold prices can fall below $1000 in the near term. Indian rupee (like its Asian peers) is on a depreciating trend which will limit rise as well as fall for gold prices in India.


I was expecting a custom duty cut of two percent in India in February’s annual budget. However now I am changing my view and do not expect gold custom duty cut as there is a huge chances that the spillover effects of global economic uncertainty will negatively affect Indian economy.


The Indian prime minister Modiji’s “Acche din” (good days for everyone) has now evaporated as the government has not been able to control the price rise of surviving essentials. The so called “Acche din” (good days for everyone), is only for corporates and global investors and not for the masses which continues to suffer. The non performing ministers have to be given the door to make an entry for star performers. Gold custom duty will cut in a big way when the “Acche din” (good days for everyone) starts to rain. (Please note, that my personal views are anti congress and pro nation).


The bullion industry has given me everything. It is my duty to support its causes. There is large scale unemployment of workers in the jewelery sector as demand slumps. The government should take measures so that small jewelers and traditional jewelers do not close their shops. Custom duty on gold imports are very high. There is continuous harassment by state taxation authorities on the pretext of checking of the use of smuggled gold by jewelery manufacturers.


Today gold needs to trade over $1070 to prevent another wave of sell off. Silver needs to trade over $1360 to prevent another sell off. However if copper prices rise, then silver will not fall by much.


COMEX GOLD FEBRUARY 2016 – current price $1079.80

Bullish over $1088.10 with $1096.90-$1102.30-$1109.50-$1114.10 as price target

Bearish below $1082.20 with $1076.30-$1070.60 and $1062.20 as price target

Neutral Zone between $1026.20-$1088.10

Jobbers aggressive buy over: buy at $1062.00 stop loss $1051 for $1078 and $1098

Jobbers sell below: Sell if and only if gold trades below $1078 either in UK session or US session stop loss $1084.30 for $1072.80 and $1066.10

  • Gold needs to trade over $1078.00 for the whole day to rise to $1091 and $1104.
  • There will be sellers if gold trades below $1078.
  • Jobbers watch $1078.00 and $1084.30.

COMEX SILVER MARCH 2016 – current price $1382.50

Bullish over $1392 with $1417-$1435-$1455 as price target

Bearish below $1377 with 1364-$1349 and $1312 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $1377 and $1392

Jobbers aggressive buy over: Buy at $1337 stop loss $1321 for $1396-$1436

Jobbers sell below: sell silver below $1377 stop loss $1391 for $1364.00 and $1337.

  • Silver needs to fall below $1360 or break and trade over $1408 for direction.
  • Initial support is at $1377. There will be sellers only if silver trades below $1377.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)  - current price $30.66

Bullish over $32.60 with $35.20-$37.10 as price target

Bearish below $30.90 with $29.70-$28.40 as price target

Jobbers buy over: I am against buying unless crude oil breaks and trades over $32.20

Jobbers sell below: Sell below $30.40 stop loss $31.40 for $29.60 and $28.10.

  • Crude oil can fall to $28.10 as long as it trades below $35.10
  • There will be sellers only below $29.70 today.
  • Remain on the sidelines and watch $30.60 all the time.

COMEX COPPER MARCH 2016 – current price $197.80

Bullish over $192.20 with $202.30 and $209.80 as price target

Bearish below $189.90 with $186.30 and $183.70 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $189.90 and $192.20

  • Key support is at $193.20. There is always hope that copper can rise back to $216 as long as it trades over $193.20
  • There will be sellers if copper trades below $195.10 either in UK session or US session.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

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