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Asian Metals Market Update

By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Monday, 8 February 2016 | Print  | Disqus 


US January nonfarm payrolls numbers should see an upward revision next month. The number is just to ensure that the US dollar weakens. February numbers will be much higher than January (if there is no weather related disruption). There are now doubts over the next interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. This will ensure firm bullion prices and a weaker greenback.


Emerging markets stock might cheer in the form of a stronger currency and higher stock markets. Still it is better to invest in nations and specific stock whose fundamentals are strong and/or near a long term bottom.


Chinese foreign exchange reserves has now shrunk to the lowest since 2012 to $3.23 trillion. Chinese are one the largest investors in US treasury. Chinese are only increasing their gold reserves. Obviously they are selling US bonds and also using currency swaps to intervene in their foreign exchange markets. The effect of Chinese withdrawal from US treasury will be felt in the next quarter.


Chinese wholesale dealer of gold and silver have been stocking themselves for the past three months. This is reflected from warehouses in Singapore, hongkong and shanghai. Chinese retail demand will only rise and will ignore economic slowdown.


Indians dilemma will be there. Middle class Indians and Neo Middle Class Indians have not made long term investment in gold and silver in the past six months. (on a general concept). The dilemma is whether to invest in gold and silver at current prices or wait for some time. The best way is to start a gold systematic investment plan on your own. Fix the amount to be invested in physical gold and buy gold or buy silver with the amount every month. However for Indians, selected stocks will give far better returns than gold and silver as valuations looks very cheap.


The Islamisation of Europe continues and also its dissent. Dissent will be crushed the American way in Europe. To me Islamisation and gold have a direct relationship. In the next ten years, nations in Europe will expand and contract. Russia will certainly disintegerate. America and Turkey combined will rule the world. States will be controlling every minute of our lives. All this makes me believe that I should invest over thirty percent of my savings in physical gold and hide it. (Please note that I am against all forms of religious radicalization and am not biased towards any religion).


Momentum as well as technical are all bullish for gold and silver. Central banks comments to weaken their respective currency should be closely watched. The pace of rise of gold and silver will be important and not the actual rise. Today one needs to remain on the sidelines.


COMEX GOLD APRIL 2016 – current price $1166.50

Bullish over $1171.80 with $1187.50-$1194.30 and $1203.30 as price target

Bearish below $1159.90.10 with $1152.20-$1145.20-$1136.50 as price target

Neutral Zone between $1159.90 and $1171.80

Jobbers aggressive buy over: Buy at $1144 stop loss $1129 for $1173 and $1187.80 or buy if gold trades over $1171 stop loss $1164.70 for $1184 and $1196.

Jobbers sell below: Sell if and only if gold trades below $1159 either in UK session or US session stop loss $1163.30 for $1152.90 and $1144.80

  • Gold needs to trade over $1171 today to rise to $1196-$1207 and $1219.
  • Initial support is at $1160.90 with $1145.10 as the key support.
  • Jobbers watch $1171.90 and $1154.70.

COMEX SILVER MARCH 2016 – current price $1492.50

Bullish over $1463 with $1521-$1548.0 and $1572.30 as price target

Bearish below $1448 with 1434-$1424 and $1391 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $1448 and $1463

Jobbers aggressive buy over: Buy over $1491 stop loss $1477 for $1507-$1533

Jobbers sell below: sell silver below $1477 either in UK session or US session stop loss $1489 for $1457 and $1433

  • Silver needs to trade over $1490 today to rise to $1521 and $1561
  • There will be sellers if silver trades below $1490 either in UK session or US session.
  • Jobbers watch $1490 all the time.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)  - current price $30.90

Bullish over $30.50 with $31.50-$32.90-$34.10 and $35.30 as price target

Bearish below $29.40 with $28.80-$28.20 and $26.60 as price target

Jobbers buy over: Buy at $28.70 stop loss $27.40 for $33.20

Jobbers sell below: Sell at $30.40 stop loss $31.70 for $28.70

  • Crude oil needs to trade over $29.40 today to rise to $32.90-$36.10
  • Initial support is at $30.50 and there will be sellers only below $30.40.

COMEX COPPER MARCH 2016 – current price $208.50

Bullish over $208.0 with $215.60 and $220.30 as price target

Bearish below $203.60 with $200.20 and $198.30 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $203.60 and $208.0

  • Copper needs to trade over $208 this week to attract massive short covering.
  • There will be a big sell off if copper trades below $208.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees  have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

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