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Asian Metals Market Update

By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Monday, 14 March 2016 | Print  | Disqus 


At the beginning of the year, the internet media was filled with hyper bearish views on gold. Sell gold was the universal voice, Short sellers of gold where there everywhere. As gold started to rise, these short positions started getting converted into long positions. Movement in currency market, global uncertainty and US interest rate expectations have been the key drivers for gold so far in the first quarter of this year.  The period between 15th March and end June will the real big test for gold bulls. Either the stratosphere or Marina’s trench (lowest point on earth).


All important FOMC meet is there this week. Traders have already factored in a no rate hike this meeting or next meeting. A hawkish view that interest rate hike will be dependent on progress of US economy and stabilization of global economic risk will result in a technical trade and also a mildly bullish trajectory. For gold to crash this week (a) $1310 is not breached this week (b) Fed directly says that a June or before interest rate hike will be there.


After the FOMC, traders and all alike will take positions for next quarter. The next quarter is very crucial for gold and silver. If they are able to rise or trade firm in April to June quarter then both of them will zoom in the second half of the year. On the contrary if gold and silver show signs of fatigue in April to June quarter, the short sellers will once again have the upper hand. Even now there are some hedge funds who are looking for clues to sell gold and silver for the next quarter.


I believe that copper and all the industrial metals and energies have formed a long term bottom this quarter. The only direction is to rise. Corrections will not result in a fall below this years low.


Remain on the sidelines. Do not be an emotional fool. Stay calm and do not get caught in the global investor dilemma of stock versus safe havens such as gold.


Investors have the tendency to take massive risk before festivals. They incur losses on trades before festivals and have a sulking face. The colorful festival of Holi is very near. Please do not incur trading losses. If you are not confident, do not trade. Trading opportunities will also be there after holi, enjoyment time will not come again.


Most of us (including myself) work on a fourteen hour a day schedule. Weekends are there to catch up with sleep and also spend time with family. In this husle and busle of daily lives we forget our own self and friends. Holi is the time to catch up with our friends and also rediscover our true self. Just remember trading later, holi and festive enjoyment first.


(I am seeing a lot of traders unable to cope with current intraday volatility of gold. They have incurred good losses. They made the losses because they just followed the momentum and ended up buying at highest prices and selling at lowest prices. The emphasis of today’s report is to remind our highly experienced clients to stick to the basic parameters of intraday trading. Take a break if you are unable to trade in current volatility.)



COMEX GOLD APRIL 2016 – current price $1255.90

Bullish over $1256.70 with $1262.60-$1268.60-$1275.90 and $1284.50 as price target

Bearish below $1247.60 with $1240.30-$1234.20-$1228.30 and $1220.90 as price target

Neutral Zone between $1247.60 and $1256.70

Jobbers aggressive buy over: Buy at $1228 stop loss $1208 for $1284 and $1307 or buy over $1256.50 stop loss $1247.10 for $1265 and $1284.

Jobbers sell below: Sell if and only if gold trades below $1247 stop loss $1252.30 for $1240.70 and $1224.80

  • Gold needs to trade over $1256 to rise to $1286 and $1307
  • Initial support is at $1247. There will be sellers only below $1247 or in case gold does not break $1276 today.
  • Jobbers watch $1256.10 and $1247.30

COMEX SILVER MAY 2016 – current price $1555.50

Bullish over $1530 with $1593-$1613-$1629.50 and $1665 as price target

Bearish below $1504 with $1495 and $1471 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $1504 and $1530

Jobbers aggressive buy over: Buy at $1510 stop loss $1488 for $1596-$1646 or buy over $1560 stop loss $1547 for $1586 and $1640.  

Jobbers sell below: sell silver below $1544 stop loss $1561 for $1526-$1509

  • Silver needs to break and trade over previous double top at $1588 for another wave of rise to $1647-$1710 and $1960.
  • Initial support is at $1530 with $1504 as key support.
  • Jobbers watch $1556 and $1588 all the time.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)  - current price $38.37

Bullish over $37.50 with $39.30 and $42.40 as price target

Bearish below $34.70 with $32.70-$30.40 as price target

Jobbers buy over: Buy at $38.00 stop loss $34.30 for $42.40

Jobbers sell below: Sell below $35.90 stop loss $37.10 for $33.40 and $31.30

  • Crude oil needs to trade over $36.70 this week to rise to $41.85 and $45.10
  • Jobbers watch $37.60 and $39.20 all the time.

COMEX COPPER MAY 2016 – current price $226.20

Bullish over $219.90 with $230.80-$239.60 as price target

Bearish below $214.20 with $209.70 and $203.20 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $214.20 and $219.90

  • Copper needs to fall below $219 or break and trade over $228 for direction.
  • Initial support is at $222.20. There will be sellers only if copper trades below $222.20 either in UK session or US session.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

Trade without emotions

"Print this report only if absolutely necessary. Save Paper. Save Trees."


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UK session starts around 2:30 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories

US session starts at 7pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)




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