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Asian Metals Market Update

By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Wednesday, 6 April 2016 | Print  | Disqus 


I do not expect the bank of Japan to intervene to prevent sharp gains of the yen. Gold would have crashed but for gains in the Yen. A stronger Yen always increases gold investment demand from Japanese hedge funds. Gold managing to trade over $1200 is a positive sign. The next three days are very crucial for gold and silver.


The so called “Panama scandal” is nothing new to me. There has been an unofficial practice in India (by rich, famous and bribed bureaucrats) of making shell companies in a global tax haven recognized, transferring the money to these shell companies through hawala and thereafter the money gets legal status. Another practice that has been followed in India is over pricing of exports. Exports are massively over priced, money is transferred through hawala to the designed country of export and the proceeds brought in India is legal as well as tax free. A lot of time we hear in India of massive inflows/outflows by foreign institutional investors (FII) affecting the rupee value. A large number of these FII flows in India is basically shell companies of rich, famous and bribed bureaucrats. These process will not stop. A few days it will remain in the media. New channel is about TRP once some other news comes, this will vanish.


  Remain on the sidelines. Movement will be two way.


COMEX JUNE 2016 – current price $1231.80

Bullish over $1219.20 with $1239.10-$1247.80 and $1262.50 as price target

Bearish below $1210.20 with $1206.20-$1202.10-$1197.10 and $1184.80 as price target

Neutral Zone between $1210.20-$1219.20

Jobbers aggressive buy over: buy at $1230 for $1247 and $1263 stop loss $1218.10

Jobbers sell below: Sell only if gold trades below $1215.40 either in the UK session or the US session stop loss $1222.30 for $1206.20 and $1188.90

  • There is a technical congestion between $1242 and $1254. Only a break of this zone will trigger another wave of rise.
  • In case gold does not break $1242 by Friday, then it will fall to $1206 first and then rise to $1292.
  • Jobbers watch $1226.10 and $1234.80

COMEX SILVER MAY 2016 – current price $1516.00

Bullish over $1506 with $1539-$1557-$1582-$1603 as price target

Bearish below $1488 with $1469 and $1446 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $1488 and $1506

Jobbers aggressive buy over: Buy at $1488 stop loss $1449 for $1549-$1586

Jobbers sell below: sell silver below $1496 stop loss $1511 for $1477-$1449

  • Silver needs to trade over $1507 today to rise to $1537 and $1586
  • There will be another big rise only if silver manages to trade over $1536.
  • Jobbers watch $1496 and $1516 all the time.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)  - current price $36.76

Bullish over $35.80 with $38.30-$40.70 and $42.70 as price target

Bearish below $34.90 with $33.70-$33.10 and $31.20 as price target

Jobbers buy over: Buy at $36.00 stop loss $34.70 for $38.90 and $41.60

Jobbers sell below: Sell below $35.80 stop loss $36.90 for $33.90 and $32.90

  • Lead needs to trade over $35.00 till Friday to make another attempt at $40.20.
  • There will be buyers only if crude oil manages to trade over $37.10.

COMEX COPPER MAY 2016 – current price $214.40

Bullish over $215.30 with $224.80 and $235.60 as price target

Bearish below $211.40 with $208.10 and $202.00 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $211.40 and $215.30

  • There is a technical congestion between $208 and $212. Copper needs to trade over this zone to rise to $224.50 and $234.
  • Big crash only if copper trades below $208 in US session any day this week.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

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UK session starts around 2:30 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories

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