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Asian Metals Market Update: May-11-2016

By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Wednesday, 11 May 2016 | Print  | Disqus 

Corrections in gold and silver are a part and parcel of a long term bull rally. Gold and silver’s rise is mainly due to investment demand and lacks physical off take from key consumers like India and China. In the mobile investment age, investment demand surges can drive prices of anything to mars and defy fundamentals for a much longer period than we can imagine. Rise in investment demand for gold and silver is good for the long term. Physical demand increases will catch up sooner than later.


The increase in US jobs numbers has been mainly due to higher employment low level jobs where the salary is just the bare minimum as specified by the law. The negative effects of the low interest rate regime by the Federal Reserve has been kept under wraps. Once the wrapper is opened to the public, retail investors will run helter-skelter to buy gold and silver. Governments all over the world are now inducing us to shun cash purchases and go for non cash transactions. By using non cash modes of payment such as online purchases, credit cards and debit cards, the state is trying to determine our consumption habits. In the end using social media and artificial intelligence, the state will try to dictate our consumption habits. One has to buy more physical gold as the state gets control of every second of our lives.


Yesterday gold and silver traded in a range bound way for most of the day. It fell as US markets opened and rose before close. Patience and higher stop losses is the need of the hour under such price movement. Both buyers as well as sellers incur losses. You went short and exited at cost as prices rose $4 all of a sudden. You went long in gold say at $1261 and as prices started falling to $1258 you exited at cost. The minimum net loss was the broking charges. Trading opportunities will come every now and then. If you are not confident, then trade the next day.


Hedge funds have started getting bullish on gold and silver. The global economy is not out of the woods. A free money regime will continue to create assets bubbles. Gold is the best hedge against free money and asset bubbles.


There should be a wider consolidation phase till key technical resistances are not broken. I am against selling gold unless it falls below $1247. I am against selling silver unless it falls below $1660 for the rest of the month.


MCX GOLD JUNE 2016 – previous day close Rs.29783

Gold can rise to Rs.30200 and Rs.30660 by Friday as long as it trades over Rs.29432-Rs.29596 zone. Big crash only if gold trades below Rs.29432. However a daily close below Rs.29700 today will be bearish for the rest of the week.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

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