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Asian Metals Market Update: May-17-2016

By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Tuesday, 17 May 2016 | Print  | Disqus 

Yesterday’s fall in gold from $1290 to $1272 was very quick. All buy stop losses got triggered. There was a chain reaction. There will be similar moves everyday. The bad thing is that gold was not able to break past $1300, despite having a good chance for the same. Momentum is still bearish for gold. Everyone wants to invest in gold. In case is not able to break past $1310 by 10th June, then frustration will come to investors and there can be short term outflows from gold ETF’s. Gold is at a critical juncture in the next month. Either it breaks $1310 or a big short term correction. However I will prefer to use sharp corrections to invest for year end.


I am bullish on silver for the next two years. Silver fundamentals are changing from negative to positive. Silver’s demand trajectory will only rise over the coming months. A Chinese economic stagnation (if any) will not affect silver demand in a big way. Only the pace of rise of silver will vary every month. Some months there will be a very quick rise in silver. While in other months silver prices could consolidate for a much longer period than we expect.


Progress of Indian monsoons in my view will not affect Indian rural demand. A good monsoon may not result in zooming of gold demand from rural areas. Rural India’s purchasing power has been a gradual decline. Unless Indian rural inflation stabilizes, gold demand from rural India may not rise in the way the world gold council expects.



COMEX JUNE 2016 – current price $1280.60

Bullish over $1275.10 with $1288.70 and $1307.70 as price target

Bearish below $1271.30 with $1266.70-$1258.10 as price target

Neutral Zone between $1271.30 and $1275.10

  • Gold needs to break and trade over $1297 to attract short covering and another wave of rise.
  • There will be buyers on dips as long as gold trades over $1250.
  • Jobbers watch $1278 all the time.

MCX GOLD JUNE – previous day close Rsa.29977

Gold has been trading in Rs.29600-Rs.30300 trading range. This range will be broken soon and a new range will be formed. There will be sellers on rise unless gold prices show strong technical evidence of floating over Rs.30230. Gold June futures are expiring at the end of the month. Gold prices need to trade over Rs.29200 for the rest of the month to continue its bullish trend.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

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