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Asian Metals Market Update: May-24-2016

By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Tuesday, 24 May 2016 | Print  | Disqus 

Citi bank says that gold prices can fall below $1000 this year. Some reports say that Soros and other non traditional large investors have invested in gold. Investors are now confused. Gold will fall or continue to fall for the rest of the year, if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates or gives indication that interest rates will be raised every alternate month for the rest of the year. Gold is dependent of Federal Reserve manipulation. Gold will rise only on days when American interest rate factor takes a back seat. Key economists like Rajan (India’s central bank chief) are warning of spillover effects of being over dependent on monetary policy for economic growth and divergent fiscal policies by central banks. There are more reasons for being invested in gold.


But short term trading is the opposite of long term investing. There are days of range bound trade. There are days of excess volatility. It is never easy to trade (not invest) in the short term. There are two ways to trade in gold in the short term (a) use a sell on rise strategy as long as gold does not break $1437. (b) Key short term support is at $1209. Buying only around $1209 or if gold falls below $1209, then wait for some time and invest for the short term around $1086 and below.


There is a general chorus among analysts that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest by much in an election year. The Federal Reserve can spook the investor by raising interest rates beyond investor expectation. All the Federal Reserve official jobs will be at risk whenever a new president comes in. History suggests that the Federal Reserve have committed excesses whenever their jobs are in danger. They connive with some hedge funds for their post Fed assignment. I am no doubt bullish on gold for the rest of the year. But right and for the next sixty days, I will be looking for interest rate spook by the Federal Reserve.



COMEX JUNE 2016 – current price $1248.60

Bullish over $1258.00 with $1270.30 and $1279.20 as price target

Bearish below $1247.10 with $1242.20-$1234.80 as price target

Neutral Zone between $1247.10 and $1258.00

  • Gold can fall to $1234 and $1209 as long as it trades below $1260

MCX GOLD JUNE – prices in Indian rupees below

Gold can fall to 29236 and 28776 as long as it trades below 29960. Only a daily close over 29960 will resume the bullish zone.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

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