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Asian Metals Market Update: August 5-2016

By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Friday, 5 August 2016 | Print  | Disqus 

Indian demand for gold and silver will begin around the 20th of August. The Hindu festival of “Rakhee” marks the beginning of two and half months of festivals in India. Rakhee is a big gifting day also. On the emerging gifting trend in India, mobile phone and electronic gadgets are the most popular. Light weight silver jewelry, silver rakhee and other silver items are increasingly catching the fancy of the one and all in India. Gold is not a big gifting thing on rakhee. I expect physical silver demand in India to rise as jewelers prepare for higher sales on rakhee and follow up festivals such as Krishna Janasthami and Ganesh Chaturthi (mainly in Maharashtra and Gujarat). Even the follow up Hindu festivals are silver consuming festivals. Silver fundamental outlook is bullish for the next three month due to Indian demand and Asian demand.


My experience on analyzing from 2003 is that Indians buy gold in a panic only when there is media hype of a quick rise and a sustained rise. Pure gold jewelry demand is paving the way for diamonds and stones with very little gold content. The lower middle class and middle class people are more and more buying these kinds of jewelry. Another factor for change in Indian gold demand pattern is the young generation (between age 18-30) prefer light weight and budget jewelry and something which they can change frequently. The gold demand pattern in India can be summarized as – lower middle class is now shifting to pure gold jewelry from silver as income rises à middle class is moving to cheap diamond and colored stones studded jewelry from pure gold jewelry à The rich have started moving back to pure gold and pure platinum jewelry from diamonds. This trend will continue. However gold investment demand is on the rise among all classes in India.



COMEX SILVER SEPTEMBER 2016 – current price $2038.20

Bullish over $2025 with $2069 and $2112 as price target

Bearish below $1997 with $1982-$1967 & $1932 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $1997-$2025

  • Back to square one as silver needs to trade over $1990-$2020 zone for prevent another big sell off to $1936 and $1881.
  • There will be another big wave of rise to $2230 if silver manages to break and trade over $2076 after the release of US July nonfarm payrolls.
  • Remain on the sidelines and look for signs of trend reversal.
  • Silver needs a daily close over $2025 today to attract buyers for the rest of the month.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)  - current price $41.74

Bullish over $39.60 with $44.40 and $45.80 as price target

Bearish below $38.60 with $37.80 and $36.10 as price target

Jobbers buy over: Buy at $39.10 stop loss $36.90 for $44.10 or buy over $42.00 stop loss $41.30 for $43.40

Jobbers sell below: Sell at $44.70 stop loss $45.70 for $39.10

  • The first phase of correction in crude oil is over. Crude oil can rise to $45 as long as it trades over $39.00
  • A daily close over $42.00 today will be bullish for next week for crude oil.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

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