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Asian Metals Market Update: August-10-2016

By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Wednesday, 10 August 2016 | Print  | Disqus 

The good thing is that even after a good US July jobs numbers gold and silver have nearly pared most of their losses. Investors and everyone are buying gold and silver. The hallmark of the beginning of a bull market is the tendency to shrug off negative news and rise. I think gold and silver are on the verge of a repeat of 2004. Gold’s bull run started from August 2004 when prices were at $380.


Christians in America have started opposing imposition of Sharia Law around mosques etc. Some US war veterans are taking arms to prevent the imposition of such zones. It may be small news to you. It is big news to me as I see the seeds of a civil war being sowed in America. Gold and other non paper based investments will only rise.


The world is now being divided between religions. In India religious divisions are a daily event. Financial markets are affected by what happens in the USA, the UK or the Eurozone and not India or Pakistan. Division of America and Europe on the basis of religion will start another historical bull run in gold and silver. This bull run will seem unending. However my bias for physical silver over gold (as a long term investment) will never change.


Indian silver prices have not fallen below Rs.44000 per kilogram. As long as Indian physical silver prices trade over Rs.44,000 per kilogram, the chances of a price rise to Rs.54,000+ per kilogram in October and Rs.65,000 per kilogram by the end of January 2017 will be very high. Silver will renew its medium term bearish trend if physical prices fall below Rs.44,000 per kilogram. In the next three years, the chances of Indian physical silver prices reaching Rs.115,000 per kilogram is higher than chances of a prices falling to Rs.28,000 per kilogram. The risk to return ration moves in favor of the buyers in the long term.


Indian physical gold prices need to trade over Rs.33,000 per ten gram for a week to zip-zap-zoom quickly to Rs.47,000 per ten grams. As long as Indian physical gold prices do not break Rs.33,000 per ten grams, it should trade in Rs.26000-Rs.33000 (per ten grams). Medium term bearish trend only if gold prices trade below Rs.26000 per ten grams.


COMEX DECEMBER 2016 – current price $1354.90

Bullish over $1346.80 with $1361.10 and $1379.40 as price target

Bearish below $1342.40 with $1336.40 and $326.70 as price target.

Neutral Zone between 1342.40-$1346.80

  • Key resistance is at $1361.30. There will be a technical breakout over $1361.30 to $1379.10 and $1397.60
  • There will be massive short covering if gold is able to rise today.
  • Remain on the sidelines.
  • A daily close over $1350 will be bullish for gold for tomorrow.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

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