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Asian Metals Market Update: Sep 22, 2016

By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 -- Published: Thursday, 22 September 2016 | Print  | Disqus 

The reaction of gold and silver to the FOMC statement has been muted. The rise is not as per my expectation. Pace of interest rate hike will be the key and not the actual hike. A December interest rate hike is imminent and has been factored in. Election spending and resulting jobs creation can result in US nonfarm payrolls numbers coming in over 200,000 for the rest of the year. However I believe that US employment generation will see a substantial reduction from next year with big chances of a fullstop on US interest rate hikes.


Gold has to break $1399.40 before or just after the release of the US September nonfarm payrolls which will be released on 7th October. In case gold does not break $1399.40 by 7th October, chances of moving into a bearish phase will be very high. Silver on the other hand just needs to trade over $1960 till 7th October to be in a long term bull zone. This is the technical picture of gold and silver for the next three weeks.


Today’s closing is very important for gold and silver. Gold and silver need a higher close to attract short term investors.


COMEX GOLD DECEMBER 2016 – current price $1336.65

Bullish over $1332.40 with $1346.60 and $1377.50 as price target

Bearish below $1323.50 with $1315.50 and $1303.90 as price target.

Neutral Zone between: $1323.50-$1332.40

  • There is a technical congestion between $1341 and $1347. Only a break of this zone will result in another wave of rise to $1357 and $1377.
  • On the contrary in case gold does not break $1347 by tomorrow then chances of a fall to $1296 and below will be very high.
  • A daily close over $1334.40 today and tomorrow will be bullish for gold for next week.

COMEX SILVER DECEMBER 2016 – current price $1988.30

Bullish over $1965 with $2032 and $2107 as price target

Bearish below $1947 with $1912 and $1857 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $1947-$1965

  • Trend is bullish as long as silver trades over $1965. However further rise will depend on the ability to break and trade over $2001.
  • A daily close over $1965 today and tomorrow will result in $2041 and $2104 by next week.
  • Aggressive buying preferably only if silver trades over $2001 either in the UK session or the US session.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)  - current price $45.76

Bullish over $43.40 with $46.70 and $47.80 as price target

Bearish below $42.20 with $41.70 and $40.60 as price target

  • Trade very carefully between $47.50-$49.50 zone. Only a break of this zone will result in another wave of rise to $52.20.
  • There is a resistance every $1.20 till $50.20. Trade carefully and look for signs of trend reversal.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

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